To: ccryder who wrote (10466 ) 3/3/2000 5:02:00 PM From: A.L. Reagan Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29987
Ccryder, agree that McCaw's decision is excellent news for GSTRF. Timing and critical mass is everything in this game. McCaw passing after months of DD indicates to me that there ain't much worth saving from Iridium in terms of non-terrestrial assets, even if it were given away. What McCaw wants to do with ICO and Teledesic is quite a bit different from G*'s current business plan. The only real value Iridium ever could have had for McCaw to own it was the ability to ramp-up a customer base. Now, he must wait until late 2001 to 2002. This gives G* a huge ability to take the real first mover position in this market. There is enormous power in creating a well-managed satisfied customer base regardless of what the next technology over the hill may bring. [Ever since UNIVAC was invented there has always been a next more wonderful technology on the horizon... but just look at the notable lack of precision IRID and G* hit any of their projected timetables -- so I'll bet ICO/TELED with their "maybe greater, but a lot later" won't be any different.] So, Bernie and gang - the field appears to be wide open for the next two years - an eternity in tech-time. Carpe diem! P.S. Agree with thread that if there are any intangible or terrestrial assets of Iridium that have value, G* should due DD and bid in a liquidation scenario. (Or, more insidiously, pull a McCaw, and tie the bankruptcy court and everybody else up for a few months dicking around with an expression of interest to buy the whole thing, while what remains of Iridium is in the meantime ground into the dust. Kabuki theater stuff.) P.P.S. Normally click on when other posters brag about their wonderful predictions coming true, but if you've read this far, suffer me the brief indulgence that the thought expressed below on December 8 has now come to pass. Message 12229400