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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pullin-GS who wrote (33117)	3/29/2000 4:32:00 PM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77397

I have to admit that I am amazed at the resilience of CSCO stock considering all the things that are conspiring against this company! (other 800 lb gorllas that are gunning for it's enterprise market, sleek-aggressive upstarts, CSCO's internal weaknesses, overblown stock price, etc.) Oh well, the market can never be wrong eh Zolt?

To: Pullin-GS who wrote (33117)	3/29/2000 5:31:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77397

Two things.. In every negotiation there are two sides and two stories. You have articulated one position. It would be interesting to hear the other. On a more objective note since Cisco had such a large market share in the core router market it was expected that it would not be maintained but certianly CISCO expects to maintain it's market share leadership position. You ask how a company can expect to keep it's market cap in the face of dwindling market share. The answer is you're looking at one market segment. If you consider Cisco's penetration into new markets then I think you'll get your answer. Good luck. OG

To: Pullin-GS who wrote (33117)	3/30/2000 1:51:00 AM
From: nihil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

"I'm considering selling my 200 shares at this point." Try to sell them off in a slow and orderly fashion so as not to roil the markets, please.

To: Pullin-GS who wrote (33117)	3/30/2000 3:03:00 AM
From: Kashish King	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 77397

Parabolic Action I can't see faulting CSCO in terms of product, direction, marketing or anything else for that matter. The revenues speak for themselves, as do the profits. What's there to complain about? The problem I have is with general market ignorance regarding technology. What people don't realize is that the commoditization of the router is just around the corner and these boxes are far less sophisticated in design than a $99 PC motherboard. Cisco has its hands in plenty of other pies but the competition is getting tight. My guess is this top-notch company will continue its ride at the front of the pack, but the other teams are closing the gap: Nortel, Lucent and dozens of others. Enough about the company, let's talk about the stock and it's getting dizzy. Again, this is shareholder ignorance regarding technology and in terms of valuation. You can oftentimes justify an astronomical valuation when a company is starting out, however, this is a massive company in a maturing product space. Percentage growth becomes more and more difficult to achieve and there's virtually no justification for a 200 plus PE. It's not unusually to see PEs in the high 30s these days for Net hardware companies but that's a new phenomenon. But 200? Let's be serious. The other half of this parabolic rise is the parabolic decline and I can definitely see that coming. Even if CSCO drops in half they still have an outrageous multiple. If the stock loses 90% of its value they will still be in "expensive" territory. I don't expect that to happen overnight but a substantial haircut is definitely in the cards. Anybody really think that CSCO is going to grow from 500 to 600 billion with revenues still hovering around 15 billion? When revenues level off the stock is going to drop to 2X or 3X revenues: 30 or 40 billion from their current 500 plus billion. Excellent company but the poster-boy for investor stupidity in terms of valuation.