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To: Bucky Katt who wrote (5956)	4/2/2000 1:55:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13094

The Economy... **************** William: Your friend, the Economist, makes good points about the rate increases not being ahead of the curve: Message 13316159 But the cumulative effect of those rate increases is yet to be felt... There is a 6 to 9 month lag time for each one of them to take effect... So, the final effects of the last two or three increases are 6 to 12 months away... By the Fall we should see a declining Economic growth rate... This should initiate a neutral to accommodative stance by the FED... What Greenspan doesn't want to do is have a repeat of 1987... So, I think we'll have two more 1/4 point rate increases before it's all over... With growing international competition it's critical that the U.S. continue to be the world's productivity leader... I don't think Greenspan wants the U.S. to return to the much lower productivity days of the late 1970's and early 1980's... The U.S. would no longer be a world class Economic power if that happened... Greenspan, the President, and Congress knows that... If we don't lead, someone else will... Jim

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (5956)	4/4/2000 7:03:00 PM
From: Silver_Bullet	Respond to of 13094

I would pin the lack of productivity gains, if the Q1 nonfarm productivity should say as such, on the slowness of the companies, such as Emerson, to embrace the technology. Companies half implement a system so now they have more people entering more data into more different types of systems. So actually the company is almost less productive. I believe that over the next few years the companies that do not use technology right will get passed by those that do and companies like EMR will have stock prices much lower than 40 to 50. There is no reason for everything to be on the web and realtime throughout any enterprise. Yes it is expensive but the gains seen by far out weigh the initial investment. I will watchout for the report and use it as a buying opportunity, at the right time, to get some great companies for very cheap and make the gains all over again. William, I have not bought many of your picks, I stick to my own style of trading but very much use your Market outlook. Whether it is the OEX, gold or Oil you really help in seeing the bigger picture of the forces involved in moving prices in equities. Thanks very much, FT