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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (103012)	4/7/2000 10:20:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574849

Mani: Re: "AMD: Mid-year high-speed chip debut." Comment: The gameplan is looking more solid with each passing day! This gang has its act together! This is even more fodder for multiple expansion justification in the very near term!

To: Mani1 who wrote (103012)	4/7/2000 11:07:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1574849

Re: "AMD has already demonstrated the chip running at 1.1GHz" "Thunderbird is also expected to match speeds with the forthcoming Willamette from rival Intel. Willamette has been demonstrated running at speeds up to 1.5GHz" What's wrong with this picture? AMD did a motel6 demo in the parking lot of a meter pointing to 1.1MHz. Intel did a demo in front of 1000 industry professionals but it was also a meter pointing to 1.5MHz. So does it make sense for Thunderturd to improve but Willamette won't? I don't think so. EP

To: Mani1 who wrote (103012)	4/7/2000 11:31:00 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 1574849

Mani, However, sources suggest the wraps may come off of Thunderbird as early as late May. Good news. If AMD can successfully produce chips in Dresden, it will be a mean removing a great uncertainty(worth probably at least 20 points). If the copper process yields well, AMD is free to add more machinery to the fab to increase capacity. Here is something from Raging Bull: ragingbull.com I'm not sure that I would characterize FAB30 IN ITS CURRENT STATE as "having tons of capacity." I've read that the currently-installed toolsets afford 800 WSPW (8") capacity. While this is certainly no SMALL thing, it represents less than 15% of the capacity at FAB 25 5500 WSPW (8"). Anyone, what is WSPW? wafer starts per week? Anyway, I know I should pay attention when people do the capacity calculation, but let me try it myself (someone correct me if I am wrong). 8" wafer (I assuming that 8" is diameter, not radius would equal roughtly 62,000 mm^2. If only 15% of the space is wasted for gaps between dice and corners (what is the correct number anyway) we end up with 5,380 mm^2. If each Thunderbird chip takes 125 mm^2 (any better guesses), we end up with potential 427 chips. Applying 50% yield I get roughly 200 good chips per wafer. Multiplying 200 good chips per wafer by 800 wafer starts per week, I get 160,000 chips per week, multiplying that by a little more than 12 weeks per quarter, I end up with 2,000,000 Thunderbirds out of Dresden using present equipment. Using Thunderbird ASP of $250 (since this is a premium part) I get a potential revenue of $500 million from pretty much an empty fab. If AMD is going to introduce Tbird in late may, and actually start selling them, the production has to start now, or maybe it started at the beginning of the quarter, on Monday April 3rd. Thunderbird is also expected to match speeds with the forthcoming Willamette from rival Intel. Now this would really be something. It would turn me into a long term investor in AMD. If Tbird (a mass market chip) can match performance of Willy (a limited production chip), AMD can achieve the stated goal of reaching 30% of the market. Not just of the units, but revenue and profit. Joe