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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (23610)	4/8/2000 1:36:00 PM
From: Knight	Respond to of 57584

Rande: What a fantastic post. You make everything seem so clear to a newbie like me. Thanks

To: Rande Is who wrote (23610)	4/8/2000 1:49:00 PM
From: OpusX	Respond to of 57584

Great post Rande, I'll strongly consider your ideas here and thanks once again for your dynamic vision and perhaps more importantly your willingness to share with others. Robert

To: Rande Is who wrote (23610)	4/8/2000 1:51:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Hi Rande: First as a mostly lurker here I want to thank you for the fine work you do. On your forecast of the upcoming market and looking @ REITs. My opinion today would be if we were to set a new low on the NAZ, as we enter the typical summer slow down in techs and the FED continues to raise rates we could tip into a recession. Another dip like Tuesday and the news will be doom and gloom and the consumer spending will dry up. If we break the recent low we could go a lot lower. If we do have a recession remember what happened in 1988 after the 1987 crash. While the market recovered the country entered a recession and real estate values took a big hit. So while the REIT may pay a good dividend the underlying property values could take a pretty good hit. I'm not sure if we'll set a new low on the NAZ (but it will dip, as to timing its better to be out early than late) in which case the REITs will be fine. Tim I would think that would set up a pattern of a lower low and

To: Rande Is who wrote (23610)	4/8/2000 8:00:00 PM
From: Margaret Mateer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Hi Rande, Thank you for the long and thoughtful post on the spring selloff and safe havens - I'd like to add to the discussion of a retest of the correction and prospects for the summer by taking the liberty of posting Chuck Carpino's recent update just after the "mini-crash". Chuck's work with cycles is well worth looking into and this update is an exhaustive look at the behavior of past panic lows. ------------------------------------------------------- Here is my perspective on what could occur in the near future. First,let us examine similar instances in the past of quick panic drops to see if history teaches us anything. This type of a drop is normally an aberration. It does not happen very often. A few instances in the past of panic days were September 9 and 12, 1986, October 16,19,and 20 1987, Oct. 13 and 16,1989, October 5, 1992, the Russian Coup on Aug 16 and 19, 1991, October 27, 1997, the last four days of August 1998, and most recently April 3 and 4, 2000. IN ALL THESE EXAMPLES, THE PANIC DAY MARKED THE LOW IN PRICES! In September 1986, the market made a double-low on the 30th of that month equaling the price low of the panic days of the 9th and 12th(M). After the 30th, prices rose nicely. In 1987, there was a volatile market for another month after the crash that did not break the crash low price. A higher low occurred on December 4. The same type of pattern in 1989 occurred. After the mini-crash, price was volatile until November 7, but price never went below the panic day low. In 1991, the market recovered in two days after the Russian crisis. The October 1992 quick panic, on The Sparrow's birthday, had a strong snap-back the same day, just like today. Price never went lower, but had to stabilize until the 16th before moving higher. The worst days in 1997 were October 27 and 28, with a major turnaround on the 28th. Prices were volatile up and down until January 11, 1998, but price never exceeded the panic lows. The four panic days at the end of August 1998 were more fundamentally caused than the drop on April 4. There was a currency crisis and a money panic worldwide. Those panic days marked the low for a month. In early October a double low occurred in another fast decline over only a few days. The examples I have shown have several characteristics in common. The commonality is as follows: They were all panics that lasted mostly 2 days. They all exhibited major intra-day reversals off the bottom. All the markets were volatile afterwards, anywhere from two to six weeks. Although in 1986 and 1998, the markets re-tested the panic low price points, IN NO INSTANCE DID THE PANIC LOW PRICE GET BROKEN. In the other five examples, price stayed above the panic lows. ------------------------------------------------------- btw, Chuck does see some macro cycle lows ahead in early to mid May which could easily bring about a retest of the recent low but, if history is any predictor of the future, the retest low will be a higher one. hope this post is helpful. have a great weekend, Peggy

To: Rande Is who wrote (23610)	4/8/2000 9:51:00 PM
From: christopher	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

Hi Rande, Thanks for your post concering market conditions and REIT's...in my searching for related information I found this link which talks about REIT's...I know a little bit about them but I'm doing some much needed homework here... reitnet.com Chris

To: Rande Is who wrote (23610)	4/10/2000 12:19:00 PM
From: Joe Lyddon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

REITS: Several years ago, I invested in a REIT called North American Mortgage... It was great... It paid a very good dividend... Then all of a sudden it went South... It ended up getting bought-out... and the New company also went down the tubes. Perhaps, they are governed better now... Seems like I heard that there were several safeguards put in place (similar to what Banks have to do). Before getting into them, I would check-out the rules & regulations very carefully. That all happened when I was much younger & really didn't watch everything like a hawk... just a young squirt. Beware... Good Luck, Joe