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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (104644)4/12/2000 10:19:00 PM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1576347
 
Yougang,

<Chuck: <<Don't worry, Steve. Excluding Jerry tax, $0.90-$1.10 is in the bag.>>

Very good call! Chuck. Thanks.>

Thank you! I am not sure if anyone remembers but I made the $1 forecast in this post:

Message 12620803

Here I said: "Based on the OEM activity, I think the guidance is heavily sandbagged just like Q4 - feel pretty good about $1 for Q1. Based on upbeat Dresden forecast I think $4 in earnings for 2000 should be easily achievable. If the analysts come to at least a $3 number then $60 should happen in a jiffy. Good luck everyone."

This was on the day of Q4 earnings and before the momentum crowd and the crowd that cannot tell the difference between potato chips and computer chips started piling onto the AMD thread 8-)

In any case, I think there are a lot of folks including analysts who do not understand what is going on with AMD yet so we may continue to get opportunities to buy.

Well, I had to boast! :-)

If we dip some more tomorrow, I am buying ;-)

Cheers everyone,
Chuck



To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (104644)4/12/2000 10:34:00 PM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1576347
 
Yougang,

<Would you please give us your take on the CC? >

Sure!

Here is my take:

- It was beautiful!
- Jerry was well behaved (though I still think he talks more than he should about competition)
- 600 WSW at Dresden but that indicates a SOLID ramp
- Q2 seems sandbagged (not as much as Q1 but still). The backhalf seems more reasonable but it is too early to tell.
- I am looking for $1.50-$2.00 EPS for Q2 and feel comfortable with $6 for the year.

Personally, I expect most analysts to come at $4-$7 for the year and with a 30 multiple we should get to $120 stock price fairly soon.

Good luck to the longs,
Chuck