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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (104833)	4/13/2000 12:17:00 AM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1576159

Dan3: Re: "Resulting in a share price of $300 to $750." Comment: I'm becoming more convinced every time Mr. Sanders speaks!

To: Dan3 who wrote (104833)	4/13/2000 12:29:00 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 1576159

Dan, <Resulting in a share price of $300 to $750.> IMHO, calling AMD's stock price based on performance after Q4 2000 is insane. If momentum investors push the stock price anywhere close to this range, I would sell a large part of my position. Saying AMD should be overvalued because the other companies are overvalued is a terrible way to look at things - though that's how the stock market has been functioning of late. And, that is the thinking that causes the volatitlity that you see in the markets today and causes a lot of "late mover" investors to get burned in the process. Semiconductor industry is cyclical and Intel is a very aggressive competitor. AMD's earnings growth will subside - it is just a question of time. I would seriously urge this thread not to get into a la-la land like what is seen on some internet threads (or even RMBS). At the end of the it is the manipulators that come out ahead in those games. Chuck

To: Dan3 who wrote (104833)	4/13/2000 2:36:00 AM
From: ptanner	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1576159

Dan <With AMD now clearly competitive and successful, holding a 16% market share that is growing steadily, its valuation should fairly rapidly move to between 10% and 25% of Intel's. Resulting in a share price of $300 to $750.> Trying to disagree (a little) agreeably... The market share -> market cap argument is too simple. AMD doesn't have 16% of the entire MPU market which yields Intel's high earnings -- yet. For example, one article I read noted that for 1999 Xeons were only 4% by units but represented 15% of revenue and probably much more than 4% (but less than 15%) or earnings (I am assuming slightly lower yields and/or otherwise slightly higher cost). I look forward to AMD entering the server and SMP realms but progress will be slow as the products will require acceptance from customers requiring reliability. I agree fully that AMD is still undervalued compared to the market and especially the semis, but some of the latter seem to be in iNut land; before todays CC I was feeling perhaps AMD was closer to a fair valuation but not anymore! Intel has long seemed undervalued to me but I haven't followed the semi market long enough or closely enough to have observed the bad cycles. Certainly in comparison to a memory producer I would have to believe that the two MPU producers have much greater control over their future so represent lower risk. Great quarter, great products, and great board. PT