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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ausdauer who wrote (10530)	4/20/2000 10:53:00 AM
From: Bargain Hunter	Respond to of 60323

There is no other logical explanation. How about: while this news is very good, it was widely anticipated and contained no significant surprises. People who were going to buy did so in advance. Those who bought expecting a pop, sold when it didn't materialize.

To: Ausdauer who wrote (10530)	4/20/2000 11:28:00 AM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Ausdauer, If you note the interday volume, heavy buying came in to support the stock in the $94 to $96 range. There is some significant accumulation going on at these lower prices, so I suspect we are fairly safe on the downside, given a decent market. I also though the CEO did a good job on CNBC. John

To: Ausdauer who wrote (10530)	4/20/2000 11:30:00 AM
From: Rocky Reid	Respond to of 60323

Ausdauer said: >>Now if we can just lose a few patent lawsuits and put together a string of disappointing earnings we'll all be able to retire.<<<< LOL! Nah.. just change the name to Sandisk.com, let out a string of press releases saying you are concentrating on B to B, and announce that for the foreseeable future, you will have no profits. That should send SNDK to $1000 inside a week.

To: Ausdauer who wrote (10530)	4/20/2000 11:35:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 60323

Aus, the stock was up 50% from its early April low, and people do sell on the news. I also think that second examination of the earnings reveals that of the $15 MM of so of earnings more than half (I am not sure what royalties tax treatment they get) is royalties, and gross margins on product sold is in the 30% and not growing rapidly (it should at the level of shipments they now have). With that in mind and the apparent reduction in valuations across the board, maybe the market has decided not to pay a PE of 200 on growth of between 40% to 50%. Maybe later this summer the market will change its mind. I think that the stock acted rationally, going back all the way to its overhead resistance around $110 and now backing and filling. A strong decline in may could actually bring back very cheap shares in the high $70 to low $80. For long termers, this would be an excellent point where to add shares, IMHO. Personally, I like more the growth in royalties (close to 50%) than the growth in the top line. If that growth continues, I think that current estimates are going to be low because most of the royalties income goes directly to the bottom line pretax. Zeev

To: Ausdauer who wrote (10530)	4/20/2000 11:45:00 AM
From: Starlight	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Aus - Regarding the drop in price despite good earnings, lawsuit win, etc: Just about any company with good earnings today sells off sharply. I guess the rational is that the good news has already been accounted for in the stock price BEFORE the earnings come out. Seems unreasonable to me, but everything is a little peculiar these days in the market. I think 6 mos. from now we'll see much higher prices for SNDK. Betty

To: Ausdauer who wrote (10530)	4/20/2000 3:24:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Aus, also added to my position today - at higher price than what you paid. Since I believe the stock is already overpriced on financial ratios, and that future earnings will be excellent as 'everybody' already expects, my only hope is that bigger fools will come in at higher prices from my price. Today I'm the bigger fool though -g-. My point with Iomega, is that people who only invest in one stock, who know that stock/business/industry very, very well, can get really hurt. I'm not saying SNDK has any specific business parallels to IOM. Nor am I in hindsight criticizing the IOM stockholders for making a poor choice(or just sniffing that well, SNDK has patent lockups and is a 'disruptive' technology so it's a different story from IOM). My whine is about people who buy just one stock and believe that that is rational investing. The guy who bought AOL and did exceptionally well because he had an MBA and believed he could rationally analyze AOL. Well, what happened to studying investment principles at school - like portfolio management and diversification? It's one thing to be a kiddie "investor" - person age 28 with 20K to invest - trying to MAX it, trying to shoot for the moon, strike it rich. Quite another thing to manage investments as a long term process where those who have gone before have indicated a path (like maintain diversification among asset classes, don't get overextended, don't fall in love with a particular stock, etc. etc). Paul