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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elepet who wrote (23137)	4/20/2000 2:28:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Re: GMST << I'm down more on GMST than the whole rest of my portfolio >> I'm not that far down but GMST is down further than any other stock in my portfolio. Moore says (I paraphrase) do not buy potential gorillas in a enabling technologies before the tornado begins. I think that the general consensus of this thread is that GMST is a potential Gorilla, but that the tornado has not yet begun Moore warned. I did not heed his advice. I am holding. The tornado is NOT that far away IMO. - Eric -

To: elepet who wrote (23137)	4/20/2000 2:34:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

RE: Gemstar. I am down a ton too. I bought at the top. I don't intend to sell any King or Gorilla I have until at least september. We just went through a major drop. Hang tough for a few months and see what happens. If you try to guess your way around this market at the moment, you will probably guess wrong, IMO.

To: elepet who wrote (23137)	4/20/2000 2:39:00 PM
From: shamsaee	Respond to of 54805

I believe a lot of people bought at a much higher price.However given current conditions in the market place,it is no surprise that GMST like every other tech has fallen sharply.The comfort you can take is it will come back which might not be the same for a lot of other techs and set new highs and looking back you will consider yourself fortunate at your purchase price.If it will make you feel better Bought elon at 82 and currently trading at 32.

To: elepet who wrote (23137)	4/20/2000 3:05:00 PM
From: areokat	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

"At this moment I'm down more on GMST than the whole rest of my portfolio, and I have a feeling that those who bought recently are in the same position. Does anyone have any idea of a time frame for this particular stock to make ny real head way up?" It's natural to feel this way right now but you want to stay focused, as much as possible, on some basic foundation ideas, if you believe them. 1. Stocks do not go up and down together in lock step. 2. Over a long period of time (3-5 years) most stocks that you've done DD on will go up, you just don't know when. 3.Stocks fluctuate both ways in short periods of time, spending most of their time standing still. 4. Annual returns of more than 11% (the long-term average) are abnormal. 5.Most of the people in the market right now do not have a foundation as far as their investment philosophy goes.It's what ever's hot. If you have one or develop one you are ahead of the game. 6. If you have a diversified portfolio of as few as 5 stocks you have selected carefully your portfolio will do well over the long run. Not ever stock has to be a 10 bagger; one is all you need. More than that, count your blessings. 7. The GG is a particular approach to investing in a small segment of technology stocks with the promise of above average returns, if we do our job. Most people in the market today do not have the patience or desire to follow GG principles therefore I am not concerned that it will become so popular that it will loss its effectiveness. 8. Everybody (most everybody) needs a little handholding occasionally. You've got GMST, I got PSFT. Save your post and read it again in December. Betch things look different. Tom

To: elepet who wrote (23137)	4/20/2000 3:34:00 PM
From: scott	Respond to of 54805

elepet, I believe a GMST comparison with CPQ would be inappropriate. GMST is a potential Gorilla and their future potential, the ITV market, is pretornado. CPQ was a King, and as such should have been held lightly. Warning signs in a GG context should have been evident (Dell and Gateway's more efficient bis models and CPQ's eroding margins and market share, etc.). Hinde-sight (isn't that beautiful?), perhaps it can be said that within a GG context,a GMST investment has been premature. The stock has been trading on a "price-to-vision" basis. The recent market correction has been VERY harsh on "vision" valuations. I personally still feel very positive about GMST. But, remember, it is pretornado. The "market" is still trying to get a grip on the "vision" valuation. WE have seen a very fast revaluation of "visions" in the market. It is reasonable to think that the market did in fact get to an unreasonable and euphoric valuation level regarding "visions". An GG investor in GMST should realize that this pretornado status will likely render increased volatility relative to bona fide gorillas. Personally, I nibbled a little more GMST for one of my sons custodial accounts this morning. But, then again, I have the benefit of having my original GMST position being in-the-money. Best Regards, scott

To: elepet who wrote (23137)	4/20/2000 5:35:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

elepet, I realize that I'm fairly much alone around here when I have to justify valuations to purchase a stock, so understand my bias when I ask you about Gemstar. You seem to have the opinion that you don't see anything including the TV Guide earnings report that justifies such a huge drop in Gemstar's price. What did you see that justified the huge increase last year? The answer to my question might provide the answer to your question and I'm not trying to be cute even if it appears that way. --Mike Buckley

To: elepet who wrote (23137)	4/20/2000 6:27:00 PM
From: BDR	Respond to of 54805

<<I read somewhere that there is a large short position on GMST.>> viwes.com Enter GMST. Most recent figures indicate less than 2.5% of shares are short. Doesn't strike me as high.

To: elepet who wrote (23137)	4/20/2000 6:38:00 PM
From: kumar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

re GMST : life is a lot less stressful if u accept that "some days you are the pigeon and some days you are the statue". cheers, kumar PS: oops, the curmudgeon thread is the 'other one'

To: elepet who wrote (23137)	4/20/2000 9:03:00 PM
From: chaz	Respond to of 54805

Elepet: First, clarify in your mind the distinction between the Prince CPQ and the probable Gorilla GMST, then apply Moore's thinking about how you hold each. Chaz

To: elepet who wrote (23137)	4/21/2000 4:24:00 PM
From: Juliet	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 54805

Those Shiny Pebbles--GG Advice From Thread Sought Alright, I know what the RFM advises re: cutting loose a Gorilla if its losing a war with another Gorilla, and I know what it says about holding all in a sector until one emerges... but can we extrapolate a rule about what to do when caught with Shiny Pebbles with your pants down? I admit I did Wrong. Big Wrong, in fact: I picked up all those neat little Shiny Pebbles like a magpie. And what glittered like gold is now looking more like pyrite (or, in some cases, Pyrex). Does it make more sense, GG theory-wise, to move everything off the Shiny Pebble squares and over to G squares (I really feel like I could use some more SEBL right now), or does it make more sense to let the Pebbles sit down at the bottom of the pond--waiting to see if some rise to the surface--before moving them over to a Gorilla? Math-wise, it seems like (since the Gorillas are down now, too) it might not make any difference if I just do it now. Can we see a rule on this? Or was I too much a violator of the game already, and no rules apply? That said, I do realize that I should have adhered to TRFM, and I deserve whatever punishment I get... :-) Juliet Didn't Don Ho have a song about this?

To: elepet who wrote (23137)	4/22/2000 10:01:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>Does one hold through hell and highwater even if it takes 3 years to come back? What's the point? << Hi elepet, I see you have already received quite a few responses to your post, I hope you will not mind one more. An observer of this thread can probably learn a lot about investing and quite a bit about psychology. Although this is one of the calmest and most focused of forums we still see lots of enthusiasm when stocks are racing up and a lot more despair when stocks are falling. In good times plenty of shiny pebbles are discussed and praised, while during downturns the validity of any stock that is down, regardless of its pedigree, is questioned. In analyzing any endeavor that has taken a turn for the worse it may be prudent to ask a key question posed in the RFM: "Was the decision-making process that I followed good or bad?" The author notes that we should prefer the good process even when the results turn out bad, because the goal isn't to never be wrong, being wrong is inevitable at least some of the time. The goal is to win more often than you lose, and that is what the gorilla game is all about. People who did their homework and bought GMST likely did so because they saw their potential monopoly power and their massive earnings potential. Despite the drop in the stock price, these prospects have probably changed very little since those purchase decisions were made. Now when the stock was over $100 someone could have placed a stop-loss order at$85 and that person might look pretty smart right this minute. Fine, something to think about for next time. But what about people like you - and me - that have held on so far. Does it make sense now to sell after the stock has fallen 60%? I would not think so. Warren Buffet has often posed a question like this: If you will be investing over the next ten years would you like to see your stock holdings go up or down? His answer has been that he would like to see the value of his holdings fall, because that means he can make new investments at lower prices. Of course, he has the confidence that he is making the right investments and believes they will ultimately rise in value. It is not easy to look at an investment day after day that has lost money. The impulse to do something - anything - can be overwhelming, and sometimes it is a pleasure just to get rid of the damn thing so you do not have to look at it any more. If the stock you bought was a mirage, that is probably the thing to do. Get rid of the garbage, get on the right track. But if it is a good stock, with good prospects, it is probably the wrong thing to do. That's how people get hurt, because our emotions scream at us to buy high and sell low. I don't know where the market is going in the short term, and I don't know where GMST is going in the short term, but I believe that the long term market trend is up, that technology companies with strong growth prospects and earnings potential will thrive, and that long term holders of their stocks will ultimately be rewarded. The price of that reward is, unfortunately, some suffering along the way. I hope this long post has made at least a little sense, and I hope you come to the right decision for yourself and your unique circumstances. Good luck! StockHawk