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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Valley Girl who wrote (42843)	4/21/2000 3:58:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

VG, During last 10 yrs, MSFT had 44% EPS growth. MSFT will grow its earnings by 40% per yr in the next 5 -10 yrs and deserves at least a 55 PE. For example in CY2000, the company will have 2.13 (.43, .45, .55, .7) in EPS, CY2001 about 3.12 (.72, .75, .75, .90); time will prove this. It has in the past. Conservatively the stock will be over 110 by this year end and 170 to 180 by end of 2002. There was someone on this thread called "ed" who vehemently argued MSFT at 400 by this year end. That was out of whack. Then there is Ralph Acampora who said 200 on MSFT by end of 00. I don't see how it can be 200 by thing year-end after sinking to 80.

To: Valley Girl who wrote (42843)	4/21/2000 5:00:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Regardless of what happens to other "historically overvalued" stocks, MSFT stock is doomed for the foreseeable future, IMO. If other stocks maintain their p/e, MSFT's troubles and slowing growth, will push down the p/e. One of the reasons why a premium was paid for MSFT, is because it was a "rock" in the stormy sea - "monopoly" and all that. Now that the monopoly is under attack, and growth is slowing - the stock will get killed. If all tech stocks p/e is to be taken down, that will not spare MSFT either, rather, it will be cut down concurrently. There simply doesn't appear to be any UPSIDE to owning the stock at this point in time, and that by itself, is a "SELL". Who will buy it here at 70+? I don't see it. Who would sell? I see plenty - if there is little to look forward to over the next year, why not sell? You can always buy it back later (and probably cheaper!) if you are desperate to own it (and if they pick themselves off the floor). Meanwhile, the worry over paying cap gain taxes, goes only so far. As the stock shrinks rapidly, so do those gains. Why sit on dead money? MSFT stock used to be a refuge from a troubled market - but now that refuge has been invaded by very real troubles. I'm afraid it is now a "sell". I therefore think MSFT stock is doomed for now... and for how long? Hard to say, but surely as long as growth is lagging, and legal problems threaten it massively - it is a no-go. Just my opinion. However, I am seriously thinking of going massively short MSFT. Morgan