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To: lml who wrote (13771)4/25/2000 9:27:00 AM
From: Bipin Prasad  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19080
 
from DJ Newswires: Many US Cos Set Ambitious Capital Spending Goals For 2000

(This report was originally published late Monday.)
By Mark Boslet
PALO ALTO, Calif. -- U.S. corporations have begun unveiling ambitious capital-spending plans for this year, motivated by the continued strength of the national and worldwide economies.

So far, these plans appear largely undeterred by the recent swings in the financial markets.

The willingness to increase capital budgets cuts across most major industries and reflects corporate interest in a broad range of projects. In some instances, spending plans appear to be starting points that executives are likely to add to through the year. Already, big-name firms such as Intel Corp. (INTC), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), Motorola Inc. (MOT) and Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) have increased targets set only months ago.

Much of the spending will go toward business equipment, including high-tech gear such as computers and software. In recent years, spending on information-processing systems has accounted for about a quarter of U.S. capital budgets.

However, this year should bring an increase in the construction of new commercial buildings after a decline in spending last year, said Cynthia Latta, principal U.S. economist at Standard & Poor's DRI, an economic forecaster.

Latta said she expects overall capital spending by U.S. companies to increase 11% this year. That includes a 12% rise in spending on business equipment and software - the same as last year - and a 4.5% to 5% increase in building construction, after a decline of 2.4% in 1999.

Overall, inflation-adjusted capital-spending budgets in the U.S. increased 8% in 1999 and 11.8% in 1998, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

"I think investment is driven primarily by profit or the thought someone else will eat your lunch if you don't invest," Latta said.

Spending Plans Already Increased

Several spending plans stand out for their urgency. Wal-Mart said last week in an Securities and Exchange Commission filing that its spending for fiscal 2001 would climb 14% to $8 billion from a $7 billion goal it had announced in mid-February. The $7 billion plan was already up 18.6% from $5.9 billion in fiscal 2000.

Wal-Mart of Bentonville, Ark., plans to expand or relocate existing stores and build new ones both domestically and abroad.

Chip maker Intel also last week increased an already ambitious plan. The Santa Clara, Calif., company said it would spend about $6 billion, a boost from its earlier $5 billion target. Intel spent $3.4 billion in 1999.

Executives at the company said they have underestimated semiconductor demand for the past four quarters and want to be sure adequate production capacity is in place.

Other high-tech companies are weighing in with expanding numbers as well. Texas Instruments said that to keep up with brisk demand it has increased its capital budget to $2.5 billion from a $2 billion goal announced in January. The Dallas communications chip maker spent $1.37 billion in 1999.

Motorola also bumped up spending plans in its processor business to $2.6 billion from initial expectations of $2.3 billion and the $1.5 billion spent last year. Motorola plans $4.9 billion in capital spending companywide.

Corporate leaders in other industries also have signaled year-over-year increases. Pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co. (MRK) will raise spending to $2.8 billion in 2000 from $2.6 billion in 1999. DuPont Co (DD) expects non-acquisition expenses to be about $2.4 billion, up from the $2.1 billion the company spent on property, plants, equipment and affiliate investments in 1999.

Waste Management Inc. (WMI) projects spending of $1.3 billion, and conglomerate Tyco International Inc. (TYC) plans an increase to $1.8 billion from $1.6 billion a year ago.

In Peoria, Ill., Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) anticipates spending $870 million, a 13% increase from $770 million in 1999, on its machinery and engines businesses.

Communications Spending Looks Strong

Spending plans continue to swell in the communications industries. MCI WorldCom Inc. (WCOM) sees capital spending this year at $8 billion to $10 billion as it prepares for a wave of data and Internet traffic along its networks. The company had planned to spend $7.5 billion last year, but raised that total before the year was out to $8.7 billion.

Baby Bell SBC Communications Inc. (SBC) expects capital expenditures of $13 billion to $14 billion )n 2000, up from $10.3 billion, as the telecommunications company rolls out high-speed digital subscriber line, or DSL, service to broadband customers.

AT&T Corp.'s (T) capital spending includes plans to upgrade its cable plant and continue building a nationwide wireless network. The bill is expected to come to $13 billion to $14 billion. But then spending of $13.5 billion in 1999 exceeded the company's estimates.

Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU) also appears to be revving spending. During the company's first quarter ended in December, spending was $587 million, up from $347 million a year earlier. For all of fiscal 1999, spending was $2.2 billion.

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) spent $6 billion in 1999, but said it was too early to pin down a figure for what it expects to spend in 2000.

In the oil industry, capital spending will be led this year by activity among independent oil and gas exploration and production companies, said Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown analyst Wesley Maat, who calculates worldwide spending will increase for the industry as a whole by 7% over 1999. Maat admits that his estimate may prove conservative.

Spending at major oil companies will be mostly unchanged from 1999, he said. The supermajors - BP Amoco PLC (BPA), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Royal Dutch Petroleum Co. (RD) - account for one-third of the industry's capital budgets, and they are "still trying to right-size their organizations," Maat said.

However, Royal Dutch still plans to increase its exploration and production spending in 2000. The company intends to allocate $6 billion, which is up 11% from $5.4 billion in 1999, said Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst Andreas Vietor.

Texaco Inc. (TX) said its capital budget will rise 20% to $4.7 billion from $3.9 billion.

Overall, companies will continue to spend at a strong pace in 2000, though not at the pace of 1999, when budgets included extra money to correct Year 2000 software bugs, predicted Bill Quan, senior economist at IBJ Lanston Futures in New York.

Tech Revolution Rushes On

Yet the technology revolution pushes forward, with Web-based, e-commerce projects receiving attention in corporate boardrooms. The return on investment from high-tech spending has never been better, said WIT SoundView Technology Strategist Arnold Berman.

Analysts say it's unclear whether jittery financial markets will have an impact on capital-spending plans this year. Some deals to raise money through secondary and initial public offerings have been postponed while others are moving forward, they say.

It appears the markets are "resting on pins and needles" right now, Berman said.

Also bringing in an increase this year is American Home Products Corp. (AHP), where spending is projected between $1.2 billion and $1.25 billion, up from $1 billion last year.

Black & Decker Corp. (BDK) anticipates a rise in spending to about $200 million from the $171 million the power-tools company spent in 1999.

In the cable industry, Atlanta-based Cox Communications Inc. (COX) plans expenditures of $1.5 billion, up from $1.1 billion. Comcast Corp. (CMCSK) of Philadelphia said spending on its cable operations will climb to $1.2 billion in fiscal 2000 from $773.8 million in 1999.

Not all industrie3 or companies are ratcheting up capital budgets for 2000, however. CIBC World Markets metals analyst Tom McNamara expects spending to hold steady or fall at gold, copper and aluminum companies.

"Gold, I'd say, you're going to see a decline overall in capex," he said, referring to capital expenditures. "If I had to put a number to it, I would put something on the order of down 5% to 10%."

Low gold prices are leading to the decrease. For copper, while average prices increased in the first quarter, they are still relatively low from a historical perspective, he said. Aluminum prices also have risen from last year. However, companies are wary of overbuilding and driving prices down with oversupply, McNamara said.

"The aluminum capital expenditures will be flat to slightly down," he said.

Sears Roebuck & Co. (S) says spending will decline to $1.033 billion from $1.2 billion in 1999. Holding spending steady is Owens-Corning (OWC). The buildings-product company sees spending in 2000 about the same as 1999 spending of $244 million. Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) plans to trim spending to $600 million from $669 million in 1999.

-By Mark Boslet; Dow Jones Newswires; 650 496-1366

Contributing to this story are reporters Ann Keeton, Janet Morrissey, Janet Whitman, Christina Cheddar, Paula Stepankowski, Scott Eden, Christopher Williams, Jonathan Burns and Tom Locke



To: lml who wrote (13771)4/28/2000 8:58:00 AM
From: Bipin Prasad  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19080
 
businessweek.com

......

... Ellison revels in Oracle's good fortune. ''We're cool again,'' he says. And aiming to stay that way. With his database business on cruise control, Ellison is about to launch Phase Two of his Net assault. In May, Oracle plans to unveil its most important product update in years. It's a suite of business applications that work seamlessly with one another to handle everything from customer service on one end to relationships with suppliers on the other. And it's all rejiggered to run on the Web.

Ellison's vision for what he calls the first-ever ''e-business suite'' is to create something as popular as Microsoft's Office desktop suite. Now, Ellison figures, everyone from giant corporations to tiny dot-coms can buy a single package from Oracle to run their e-businesses, rather than buying software from a host of competitors and trying to stitch it all together.

If it works, Ellison's dream of knocking Gates down a peg might actually come to pass. As computing moves from desktop PCs to huge Internet servers that run everything from Web sites to complex corporate networks, Oracle's skills and technologies are taking center stage. Ellison gloats that Microsoft's tangle with Netscape Communications Corp. over Web browsers, which landed it in hot water with the Justice Department, didn't get it ahead in the Net-server realm. ''They robbed the wrong bank,'' Ellison says. Now, if Microsoft is actually broken up, the ensuing confusion would help Oracle, though long term, it might make Microsoft's database program a stronger competitor if it is adapted to run on other operating systems besides Microsoft's Windows. For now, Oracle has a shot at becoming the biggest supplier of crucial software that extends beyond the PC, out onto the Web, and into the heart of a company. ''We have a chance to pass Microsoft and become the No. 1 software company,'' Ellison says. ''If I said that two years ago, I would have been sedated and locked up. But now we're the Internet and they're not.''

Such braggadocio frosts Oracle's competitors. They would all love to burst what they see as its stock-price bubble. They erupt at the mere mention of Ellison's name. When it comes to electronic marketplace software, ''Oracle has nothing to offer. They have no position,'' says Steven A. Ballmer, Microsoft's CEO. Steven A. Mills, general manager of software strategy at IBM, charges that Oracle's hyperaggressive sales force will promise anything to make a deal. ''They take the P.T. Barnum approach to business: There's a sucker born every minute,'' he says. And Thomas Siebel, chairman of customer-management software leader Siebel Systems Inc., calls Oracle's e-business suite ''vacuous.'' Claims Siebel: ''After all their chest-beating, they're basically failing in applications.''

BEHIND SCHEDULE. Clearly, the long knives are out. With Oracle's stock runup and early successes with e-business, it's a target for some of the most powerful companies in software. Oracle faces Microsoft and its allies such as corporate software kingpin SAP on one side and IBM and its cronies such as Siebel Systems on the other. IBM, for instance, has agreed that its 163,000-person consulting and sales team will hawk Siebel's customer-management software--a daunting prospect for Oracle, given the size of its 30,000-person consulting and sales force.

And it's no cinch that Oracle's e-business suite will be a runaway hit. The broad package of programs will go head to head with products by the biggies and by dozens of smaller companies that have a one- or two-year lead and are focused on doing one thing really well. Already, Oracle's e-business suite is a year late. David Yockelson, director of e-business strategies at Meta Group Inc., believes there's no way Oracle can build all of this technology itself and match the capabilities of its rivals. ''Oracle has a not-invented-here philosophy,'' he says. ''And building it all themselves is going to be too slow.'' Even after the suite ships, consultants such as Gartner Group Inc. warn corporate customers that it probably won't be stable enough to handle the most crucial jobs until the end of the year.

If Ellison is worried, he isn't showing it. Sitting in his four-story Pacific Heights home in front of a breathtaking panorama of the Golden Gate Bridge, he concedes that development of the e-business suite has been devilish. ''It's a huge job,'' he says. ''But it's the right strategy for Oracle.'' Indeed, he insists that the suite, called Oracle Release 11i, is on track for a May launch and will catapult the company to dizzying heights. It offers customers a simpler approach: one software product from one company--no more lavish consulting fees for making disparate products work together. ''You ain't seen nothin' yet,'' he vows. ''If this e-business-suite plan works, we're going to be an extraordinary company.''

Not that Oracle is a slouch now. The company's core business looks rock-solid. It leads in the fastest-growing piece of the database market with a 40% market share to IBM's 18%, according to International Data Corp. And with its critical application-suite upgrade on the way, Oracle seems poised for a new burst of growth. Oracle's third-quarter revenues for the period ended Feb. 29 grew 18%, to $2.4 billion. And profits? They shot up 80%, to $498 million. Oracle's application-software business also saw a healthy rise--35% growth, to $199 million. Next fiscal year looks like another winner, with applications revenue forecasted to grow 35%, according to Goldman, Sachs & Co. ''They've gone from out of the game to the front of the pack,'' says analyst Robert Austrian of Banc of America Securities.

SAMURAI WARRIOR. Product sales don't deserve all the glory. Surprisingly, Ellison has turned Oracle into a tightly run company. Gone are the days when a ''let's-make-a-deal'' negotiating philosophy ruled the sales force and feudal country managers ran their businesses as they saw fit. A year ago, Ellison kicked off a massive belt-tightening blitz that has curbed the company's free-spending ways. The workforce has been pared by 2,000 in the past two quarters. Routine sales are being shifted to the Web and away from high-paid reps. And hundreds of computing systems are being consolidated into a handful.

The result: Oracle has trimmed $500 million from expenses and boosted operating margins from 19.4% to 31.4% over the past nine months. Ellison promises he can wipe out another $1.5 billion in costs and push the margin to 40% or more in the next year, which would make Oracle one of the most efficient software outfits on the planet--though still less so than Microsoft with its 50%-plus margin.

Ellison, a penny-pinching model of efficiency? Hard to believe, but true. This is the guy, after all, who spent $3 million for Sayonara, his carbon-hull sailing yacht--the fastest craft under sail in its class. He owns a Japanese-style home in tony Atherton, Calif., where his graceful gardens and koi ponds are overshadowed only by the suits of samurai armor on display inside. Along with his glass, steel, and stone home overlooking the Golden Gate Bridge, construction is under way on a $40 million estate in the Santa Cruz foothills that's modeled on a medieval Japanese palace and will be built around a man-made lake. But all this has come from his personal fortune.

When it's Oracle's money, Ellison is downright parsimonious. But he's not tightfisted just for the sake of goosing margins. The millions that Oracle has saved so far serves as a bold advertisement for what Oracle's technologies can do for its customers. Ellison had watched other companies such as Dell Computer Corp. harness the Web to make themselves more efficient, which attracted new customers. ''Why not us?'' he recalls asking. So Ellison, who had long kept to product development and marketing, grabbed hold of operations with a vengeance. ''Larry has got Buddhas all over his house, but he's not a Buddha. He's a samurai warrior. He's the destroyer, the transformer. It's what he does best,'' says Marc Benioff, a former Oracle executive who is now chairman of Web startup Salesforce.com, in which Ellison has invested $2 million.

Everywhere that Ellison looked, he saw something that needed fixing. Each of Oracle's 70 country operations had its own computing systems and ways of tracking sales, revenues, and profits. Not for long. By the end of this year, the company will eliminate 2,000 server computers scattered around the world and consolidate on 158 machines at its Redwood Shores (Calif.) headquarters. All the company's data will be stored on one central database accessible via the Web. That makes it easy for executives to get a comprehensive view of operations and spot trouble before it gets out of hand. ''Larry has the people in this company screwed down tight,'' says Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey O. Henley. (I love this part best from this article!!! - InSook)

The Oracle boss has been just as aggressive about establishing new business practices. Ellison personally rewrote sales contracts and established standard pricing to cut down on dickering by field salespeople. He changed the compensation system to prevent more than one salesperson from getting a full commission on a sale. And he compensated country managers for meeting ambitious profit-margin targets--not meeting sales goals at any cost.

It's all about centralized control--with Ellison in charge. The way he sees it, he's creating a management style for the Internet Age. ''When you're an e-business, everything is mediated by computers,'' says Ellison. ''All the individuality is bled out of the system and replaced by standards. People don't run their own show anymore.''

That has been tough on some of Ellison's sidekicks. Oracle President Raymond J. Lane remembers getting the phone call from Ellison in December, 1998, when the boss decided to insert himself into every corner of the company's business, including Lane's sales and consulting operations. ''My mouth just hit the table,'' he recalls. Since then, everything has changed. ''All of a sudden, Larry is in your mess kit drilling down for four hours. Some days, I'll walk out of a meeting saying, 'I don't need this.' But then you look at the stock price. What Larry's doing is working. There's not a hotter company around.''

To get staffers to bend to his will, Ellison uses the carrot first--and then the stick. When European country managers were slow to give up their computing systems, he offered them an option: If they kept control of their computers, they had to pay the cost out of their own budgets. Otherwise, they got their computing for free. That ended the holdout. Canada was another story. The subsidiary dragged its feet even after Ellison dispatched Gary Roberts, senior vice-president of global information technology, to Canada last August to deliver an ultimatum. ''We had to send a Navy SEAL team to blow up our Canadian data center,'' quips Ellison. What really happened was just as effective: He shuffled management responsibilities and the problem melted away.

One of the cornerstone's of Ellison's e-engineering is the Oracle Business Online Web site. Launched last October, it targets small and midsize businesses, selling them programs for accounting and planning. What's unusual about it is that Oracle then runs the software for them as a service, charging a monthly fee. This saves small fry the cost of buying their own computers. For Pointclick.com Inc., a company in American Fork, Utah, that offers product purchase-incentive programs on the Web, Oracle Business Online provided an accounting system for $5,000 a month. And Pointclick got going in just two weeks.

CALLING ALL NEWBIES. In the past, dot-coms simply couldn't afford Oracle software. They often bought Microsoft's then-less-expensive database and made do with accounting software designed for small businesses. But Oracle has made a concerted effort to turn itself into an easy choice for newbies. For starters, it gives away versions of its database software for free on its Web site to software developers. Later, when they are ready to go into business, they pay their license fees. But Oracle makes that affordable, too. Last October, it began selling a starter kit of all the basic software a ''garage'' startup needs to establish a Web site for just $6,750. In the first month, 150 companies signed on. And, Oracle knocked about 40% off its standard database prices in December, making them competitive with Microsoft's.

The strategy is to win over dot-coms when they're in the cradle and keep them when they grow up to be adult businesses. It's already starting to work. Pointclick.com now plans on buying several million dollars' worth of Oracle database and accounting software. ''We're going to be spending so much money with Oracle, it's not even

funny,'' says Craig Brown, the company's chief technology officer. Partly to stimulate the dot-com business, Oracle has set aside $500 million in an Oracle Venture Fund to invest in promising startups. One condition: They've got to buy Oracle software.

Thanks to these ventures--and the fact that high-flying dot-coms like eBay Inc. use its stuff--Oracle has become a favorite for Net companies. These startups often buy high-octane technology right on the starting line, figuring they won't have to switch later when they're in fast-growth mode. ''You talk about the four horsemen of the Internet--it's Sun Microsystems, Cisco, EMC, and Oracle,'' says James Schanzenbach, chief technology officer for Drug Emporium Inc., a Columbus (Ohio) company that launched an online drugstore in September using Oracle software.

To reinforce that image, Oracle has forged tight partnerships with other horsemen. For example, Oracle and EMC Corp., the leading maker of data storage computers, tune their technologies to run together well and avoid downtime--which is death to e-commerce Web sites. ''Oracle has been right on track riding the dot-com wave,'' says EMC CEO Michael C. Ruettgers.

That partnership is a far cry from the gut-it-out-alone approach Oracle used when it nabbed e-marketplace customers like Ford, Chevron, and Sears. Late last year, e-marketplaces--which connect buyers and sellers of products in specific industries such as chemicals or cars--were starting to explode on the Web. Stocks of B2B companies have declined of late, but the long-term software market opportunity seems strong: Online business-to-business transactions are pegged to climb to $1.4 trillion by 2004.

B2B EDGE. Oracle wanted a piece of the action. Oracle's Lane learned that both Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. wanted to tap the Internet to overhaul the way they buy $160 billion a year in parts and supplies and were looking for a software partner to help out. Lane hoped he could pull off a coup by making deals with each of them. So he ping-ponged between meetings in Detroit. But on Oct. 28, talks with GM broke down because Oracle wouldn't surrender a chunk of its stock to GM as part of the deal, say sources close to the discussions.

Lane was more determined than ever to win over Ford. He raced across town with a proposal to set up an independent company co-owned by Ford and Oracle that would let Ford get bids from suppliers via a Web site. Lane had no time to waste. He knew GM was negotiating a similar agreement with Oracle rival Commerce One Inc., and he didn't want to leave empty-handed. Even though Lane had to fly to a wedding in Los Angeles that Saturday, he kept up the pressure through the weekend--clinching the deal by promising to spend whatever it took to get the e-marketplace up and running quickly. He nailed down the final agreement in face-to-face talks with Ford CEO Jacques A. Nasser in Las Vegas on the following Monday, Nov. 1. A day later, both GM and Ford announced their exchanges, and Oracle's stock took off. ''These were the first major exchange announcements ever,'' says Lane. ''We had to be in the game.'' The two e-marketplaces later merged.

Now Ellison is hoping he can build on these early e-marketplace successes with his e-business suite. And customers are starting to buy in. Take GE Medical Systems, a $7.4 billion operation that sells in more than 100 countries and has dozens of factories in places like China, Hungary, France, and the U.S. In December, the GE subsidiary agreed to buy Oracle's entire 11i suite and install it worldwide. The plan is to operate one database accessible to both customers and employees--rather than scattering information across a handful of computing systems. ''We're creating a global e-business,'' says Joseph F. Eckroth, the subsidiary's CIO. ''With Oracle, it's integrated. I don't have to make connections between a lot of different pieces of software.'' Eckroth, who has dealt with Oracle for more than seven years, says the company has become much easier to work with. Because of Oracle's new sales and pricing policies, it took only two days to negotiate a deal. In the past, it might have taken weeks.

Other large organizations will be a tougher sell. Many companies choose the software that they feel is best for each task--whether it's running a Web site, managing a field sales force, or coordinating relationships with suppliers. Siebel Systems, for instance, specializes in sales-force software. Broadvision Inc. focuses on personalizing Web sites. And i2 Technologies is the leader in supply-chain software. Each is considered the best in its category. Even some major Oracle database customers, such as BellSouth Corp., prefer to mix and match so-called best-of-breed programs. BellSouth is considering other suppliers in addition to Oracle for its customer-management software. ''Yes, it's important for applications to be integrated, but we can pick what we think is best and do some of the integration ourselves,'' says Francis A. Dramis, chief information and e-commerce officer for BellSouth.

There's another negative to selling a soup-to-nuts suite. By trying to do so much itself, Oracle misses out on benefits it could get from partnerships with other software makers. While it's going it alone in the exchange business, i2, procurement-software maker Ariba, and IBM announced late last month that they will pool their resources to create e-marketplaces. Former Oracle executive Barry M. Ariko, now CEO of supply-chain specialist Extricity Software Inc., believes Ellison is making a serious mistake. ''The notion that you can do everything flies in the face of what the Net is all about,'' he says. ''A lot of the new technology comes from the smallest companies. You can work with them--or you can try to do everything yourself and be 18 months behind.''

Ellison admits he's playing catch-up. But he's betting that his 7,000 software programmers can deliver a package whose pieces are in some cases every bit as good as software from the specialists. He has 800 programmers focusing on customer-management software alone. Oracle still has more to do to make its e-marketplace software robust enough for the most demanding jobs. Even Oracle Business Online has run into glitches. ''It was harder to get going than we expected,'' admits Oracle Executive Vice-President Gary L. Bloom. The service's first 50 customers had to put up with frequent service interruptions. Now, Oracle is forging alliances with telecoms to obtain more trustworthy network connections.

Oracle had better get this right. Ellison believes that over the next few years, the company will stop being a traditional software company and deliver most of its technology to customers the way its Oracle Business Online operation does--as an online service for a monthly fee. Already, about 70% of the software in the new e-business suite is designed to be dished up that way.

That means Ellison's troops are in for several more years of roiling change. ''Life is like a shark,'' he says. ''You have to continue to move forward and do things better every day, or you die.'' And Ellison is enjoying being cool too much to slow down now.

By STEVE HAMM
With Jay Greene in Seattle and David Rocks in New York