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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65251)	4/25/2000 5:05:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Uh ohhh; just saw the API report +4 M - now around 307 M boe ? .... I've only got 50% Oil's here now, due to some leverage in techland; I'd be carefull on margin in the Oilpatch folks. Looks like a re-test of OSX 100 - which should hold. I think this is a normal build here - seasonal as expected; but ! OPEC did shoot themselves in the foot a bit - poor, poor timing. They should have waited untill June - morons... this sets up some serious "spin-doctor" potential for the Oil-bears here. Another thing that scares me a bit here, is today TX just hammered the numbers - crushed 'em ! But, this damn stock is still 30-40% under where it was-should be ? The majors & integrateds are too cheap here for my comfort. That is where the liquidity is - for true market rotation - we are trully not in an "Oil Boom" untill the Majors-mini's-integrateds start participating... I'm trimming Oilpatch here folks - have too; the momenteum is NOT coming to the Oilpatch - even with the sterling earnings; because #$!#(#)n OPEC - gave the spin-doctors an opening to really push crude oil prices down on these inventory storage numbers folks - in the short term snap shot - its not a good trend. The Street will not take us higher now imho; because they have good reason to NOT believe the sustainability of crude here - given the storage trend. Nat Gas alone has NEVER been enough to either move us higher,or maintain us - start looking to take profits ASAP in the Nat Gas E&P's folks - I'm telling you.... "if" Crude takes a $2 shot here; we are going to test OSX 100 hard, real hard... and "if" we get 2-3 more weeks of 3-4 M boe builds - then we are right back to 320-325 M boe of storage and that gives the damn oilbears reason to price us at $17-$18 Oil & not $25ish. Analyst models will be adjusted, target prices lowered and then we'll have a qtr, or two - to where OPEC MUST toe the line compliance-wise and we have to draw back down to 290M boe imho to get the fundamental belief in Crude's Sustainability back - to support a run thru OSX 135+. That's the "bearish" take by a longterm "bull" fwiw... Dont let your hard earned profits melt away folks... no need to dump entire positions, but I would eliminate ALL margin and be taking 30-50% off the table into the tape if we open into a selloff. I see 5-7% down tomorrow fwiw... ... still time to grab some "tech" .... here's a freebie - RCNC - Paul Allen's Vulcan Venture's "Wired World" - cable/wireless/iNet super communications/media play... do the "DD" - its at THE bottom - huge volume buying into the close today - lots of 20-40K blocks. "ease" in - 3 buys 29ish, 27ish - and leverage sub $24 - 50% upside over the next 2 qtrs. Cable/Telecom plays are THE safe bet - WCOM a LT no-brainer play... Not trying to "move it lower" so I can buy cheaper - as I am saying this AFTER seeing the API's - and they AINT good, 85% odds we all know we're going lower in the morning... take the profits - sit back for support and dont start buying untill OSX 100ish - and we could test 85ish - "IF" we get 2-3 more weeks in a row of API adds - once again; thank #@$%)#%*N OPEC for their terrible damn timing to ease here.... This is STILL the BEST risk vs reward sector in the entire market - "IF" the Street believes the SUSTAINABILITY of CRUDE PRICES - BUT !- these API's builds over 300 M boe - are going to scare the $h!^ out of them imho... could be 2-4 weeks of softness here - take the profits and buy 'em back cheaper imo.... and in the meantime - make the money in tech ~

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65251)	4/25/2000 5:09:00 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

Good enough, you are probably right - bottoms in for the Naz. I would have liked to see a bit more negativity in the sentiment number but the technicals are turning bullish. Resistance on the Naz is about 4000. BTW and FWIW SLB flashed a MACD buy signal today. So far anyway, the OSX held up pretty well under the Naz selling onslaught. It will be interesting to see if it recovers with the rest of the market going forward. BTW I'll probably do some tech nibbling myself tomorrow. I may try some GERN - biotech. Yowsuh - say it ain't so! ;o}

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65251)	4/25/2000 5:52:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

>> I am still positive that the bottom is in the NASDQ and that we will see NASDAQ 5000 again by year end. << Don't get too excited. There are many who are underwater who will sell if we snap back too fast. I think the bottom might be in, but just like the OSX we might retest that bottom more than twice. By many measures the economy is still growing too fast and the large cap bellweathers in tech (other than MSFT) have not come down that much. This tech rally is still pretty narrow and much of it smells of bargain hunting and short covering. There will be more retests and down days. Many issues are also coming out of lockups that'll provide downward pressure. That said I've been chasing techs too. About 50% of my portfolio is in tech. I sold some today however and also wrote some covered calls. It'll take some discipline, but I'm buying into every tech dip from here on out and selling a little into each rally. I'm keeping some core positions no matter what happens though. In terms of oil issues I'm not sure what to think short term. I can see it going so many ways. I was more bullish until I saw the API's and Slider's comments. I actually bought a few back today. KEG and TESOF along with some SFS July calls. I think I'll probably be more cautious going forward, but if you're in the laggards I don't see much downside. The biggest downside is in the OSX momentum leaders such as SLB, SII, WFT, RIG, etc. HOFF back to 5? KEG back to 7 or 6? Maybe, but it doesn't seem too likely imho. Anyone notice that the OSX/E&P's have had a habit of running in-between earnings periods the last couple quarters? We're almost through earnings. Maybe 2-3 more weeks. I'm a little less concerned than Slider about the build over 300 in crude because the other "grades" are still in very short supply. Also OPEC can always talk "dirty" to the market if they take crude below $21 (or whatever price they have in mind). I'm not really inclined to margin anything here heavy unless it's short term.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65251)	4/25/2000 7:55:00 PM
From: paul feldman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

> Those of you who: > > 1.) have not suffered losses in your personal stock portfolio over the past two > weeks > > or > > 2. ) are too young to know the melody to Don McLean's song "American pie" can > skip this message. > > For the rest of you, enjoy.... > > "Humble Pie." Sing it > to Don McLean's "American Pie." Have a good > weekend! > > A long, long week ago > I can still remember > how the market used to make me smile > What I'd do when I had the chance > Is get myself a cash advance > And add another tech stock to the pile. > But Alan Greenspan made me shiver > With every speech that he delivered > Bad news on the rate front > Still I'd take one more punt > > I can't remember if I cried > When I heard about the CPI > I lost my fortune and my pride > The day the NASDAQ died > > So bye-bye to my piece of the pie > Now I'm gettin' calls for margin > 'Cause my cash account's dry > It's just two weeks > from a new all-time high > And now we're right back > where we were in July > We're right back where we were in July > > Did you buy stocks you never heard of? > QCOM at 150 or above? > 'Cos George Gilder told you so > Now do you believe in Home Depot? > Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio? > And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio? > > Well, I know that you were leveraged too > So you can't just take a long-term view > Your broker shut you down > No more margin could be found > I never worried on the whole way up > Buying dot coms > from the back of a pickup truck > But Friday I ran out of luck > > It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died