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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. BSL who wrote (13561)	4/30/2000 6:07:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

"Yesterday he talked about a possible counter rally in the NASDAQ. He's covering his bases. " Okay, I'll bite. I did not interpret his talk about a possible counter-trend rally in the Naz as "covering his bases." (If, by that term, you mean he is trying to have it both ways.) In fact, he has spoken often about the 'fact' of counter-trend rallies in a bear market. In those discussions, he has pointed out they are often sharp and strong and give investors who are holding on, a false sense that the bull is still intact. He also said folks who bailed near the market top are often 'tricked' into returning to the market on the mistaken belief that the bear is over. I think it is a big deal. Ciao, David Todtman

To: Mr. BSL who wrote (13561)	4/30/2000 9:03:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Mr.BSL I believe there is not too much talk about his call primarily because only a third of the year has passed and it has not been clear cut, at least to me, the call was a good or poor one. The indexes are down slightly since January 1st but if you went to cash as suggested capital gains taxes took effect. The effect of these taxes, for example in NY State, would mean a 30% reduction in your gains-20% Federal, 10.5% State if applicable making one possibly worse off if your cost basis in certain positions, (Msft, Vod), were quite low. The argument could be made that most made these transactions in tax deferred accounts. I suspect most of us have a mixture of the two and those at critical mass would probably have more in taxable rather than tax deferred accounts since at least by my definition of critical mass one would still have to work if one did not have access to tax deferred money and therefore not be at critical mass in the pure sense. Bob mentioned the CPI this weekend as being an indication of back end inflation. Perhaps or perhaps it was because of higher oil prices which have markedly decreased from their highs and if this is the case, the CPI should moderate in the months ahead. I believe there was an overreaction to the latest CPI number. Further, if one took out energy costs as being not representative the GDP deflator would have come in at 1.8% in the latest read. Finally, the GDP number of 5.4% was lower than any forecast I had read prior to the release of the number. I thought the number was more positive than most. The corporate profit outlook remains strong this quarter and productivity continues to come in above expectations. The only negative I can see at the moment is the tightening being done by the Federal Reserve. I disagree that Greenspan may prefer a recession as Bob has stated. The Federal Reserve wants to avoid a recessionary economy as delineated by Alan Blinder a former member of the board on Wall Street Week some months ago. I would also disagree that the high volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Volatility also regresses to the mean. Just examine the options market to test this hypothesis. So where does all this lead us? If I knew I would be at the beach.