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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Mitchell R. White who wrote (74)	5/2/2000 6:20:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 276

Mitch, re >At a guess, the correlation is probably not very good, as the economic cycle may not match the implementation cycle. We've had more tops (and bottoms) in the financial end (5? 6? since 1985) than we have wafer size changeovers (not yet 3 complete), and that's a Real Problem to sort out....< If the objective is to decide when to sell [near the cycle top], the declining SEMI orders are as good a trailing indicator as I've seen. But we need a leading indicator - or at least a coincident indicator. I haven't seen one looking at this chart. geocities.com Note the false alarms when ww sales drop 3 months in a row only to continue their uptrend afterwards. Yet some people know when to sell. That's why stock price is down a lot by the time SEMI orders drop. Who are these people? How do they know? Can we infiltrate their ranks? Gottfried

To: Dr. Mitchell R. White who wrote (74)	5/5/2000 4:21:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 276

don't know of any full-scale, 300 mm fabs actually running. Siemens/Motorola in Dresden (Siemec, is that the name?) was slated for that, but I believe they populated with 200 mm tools when all the equipment makers pushed their 300 mm release dates out. Mitch, I'm not sure how far back in time you are thinking relative to the above, but SC300 (JV to dissolve and go to Infineon 100%) is populated with many flavors of 300mm tool sets. It is best perceived as a testbed. The acquired tools from multiple vendors for many of the process steps to compare the efficacy of the various systems. I don't clearly remember when the first tools went in, but first working device(s) occured in late 1998. So I'd infer early 1998 for initial installs. BTW they are on track to start the follow on FAB (previously known as "FAB of the Future")mid next year. Equipment deliveries are to begin late in the first half of the year. FATBOY

To: Dr. Mitchell R. White who wrote (74)	5/6/2000 2:36:00 PM
From: FLSTF97	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 276

Mitch, I tried to find the data you wanted on MSI of silicon by wafer size. Unfortunately the only thing I came up with was a graphic. I've extracted the following from it, but you need to understand these caveats: 1)The lines were thick and covered a width of about 25 MSI. 2)I use zeros as place holders in the table when the quantity approached the x axis or before the quantity was enough to plot. 3)Data up to 1998 is actual while later numbers are projections. 4)I'd put error bars of easily +/- 20 MSI 5)All quantities are MSI Year 75mm 100mm 125mm 150mm 200mm 300mm 75 100 100 0 0 0 0 76 175 100 0 0 0 0 77 300 100 0 0 0 0 78 400 180 0 0 0 0 79 490 300 0 0 0 0 80 480 410 0 25 0 0 81 400 510 0 35 0 0 82 300 680 0 40 0 0 83 175 790 20 50 0 0 84 110 810 160 70 0 0 85 100 750 380 100 0 0 86 80 650 300 120 20 0 87 50 600 370 220 30 0 88 40 590 390 380 70 0 89 20 570 600 480 80 0 90 0 550 550 600 90 0 91 0 470 570 830 100 0 92 0 410 530 930 105 0 93 0 390 540 1080 150 0 94 0 380 590 1100 380 0 95 0 370 550 1150 580 0 96 0 370 570 1300 750 0 97 0 360 590 1250 1050 0 98 0 210 540 1050 1150 0 99 0 190 530 1000 1470 0 2000 0 170 510 970 1850 0 2001 0 150 490 940 2150 10 2002 0 120 480 900 2500 50 2003 0 100 470 890 2950 150 I hope this helps. The data came from a presentation I saw a month of two ago. FATBOY