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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDN who wrote (39725)	5/7/2000 6:03:00 PM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 41369

DIRE WARNING FOR AOL SURVIVABILITY??? Someone told me this during a recent telephone conversation. Thoughts??? It goes something like this: AOL is a closed system. They try and lock in their users at $20+ each month this way. Hackers hate AOL for this because AOL is trying to keep the Internet from expanding free and unhindered -- they want to only grow their portion of the Internet rather than grow the whole thing equally (their part and everyone elses as well). Web addresses are limited by 32 bits. That makes a maximum of 4 billion web addresses. Because the Internet is expanding so fast, web addresses could run out as early as sometime in 2001. But, a new version of Internet Protocol is being developed -- IETF -- based on 128 bits. It will undermine all proprietary networks like AOL because it will allow everyone to keep their own IP address for things like email no matter which ISP they use -- you could leave AOL, yet keep your @aol.com email address. How many would leave if this were the case? And the new system will also have a function that will allow ISPs to control data traffic through the network. ISPs can lock data off networks like AOL's that don't conform to open system standards. Anyway, he goes on to say that AOL will get hit hard between broadband and free ISPs and the new architecture will destroy their ability to lock-in their users. Also, just as Disney pulled away from Time-Warner, other content providers will run from AOL because they have to compete with Time-Warner, now a part of AOL. AOL has very, very thin margins, they are going to be attacked from ALL sides, stock is almost 140 times earnings, their user growth is slowing, and they have to keep expanding to justify the current price, when in reality, they will begin to lose subscribers as the Internet Protocol changes to 128 bits and hackers such as the recent one that made Microsoft's CQ and AOL's instant messaging work without being an AOL subscriber, etc. etc. etc. Basically, he says AOL has positioned themselves in an environment and closed system that is in direct opposition to what the Internet is all about and where it is headed, and they are doomed. Nothing can reverse their fate. I know this is disjointed, but I am trying to remember all he said. I own no AOL, but he says he is shorting AOL aggressively starting on Monday. For whatever it's worth????????

To: JDN who wrote (39725)	5/7/2000 7:34:00 PM
From: John Dunigan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

JDN, The role of the FED isn't to make us happy it is to control the value of our currency and keep the country employed.The stock market has made lots of us wealthy beyond normal expectations and thusly some spend more than we need to rether than save for more difficult times. There is always room for differences of opinion and you just happen to have one with Mr. Greenspan & Co. Keep in mind he is the architect of this Bull market and deserves more credit than you've given him. If he had raised interest rates 1 1/2% a year ago where would we be now? No answer required because we don't know, but probably not as well off as with a steady diet of "gradualism". In the end there is, as you state too much for the FED to kill this economy and will take an oil catastrophe or war to cool it significantly. Like you also said IMHO or not. John