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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (49695)	5/7/2000 2:23:00 PM
From: el paradisio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

James, agree. This will be the last hike and ONLY 25 points before the summer.Look how AG is thinking and try to think the same way. We has to have a CLEAR feedback, before he will KILL his own and outside economies. Summers will "help" him in that decision. besides,election is coming and everything must be "in order" ...... Permission for CRASH is not granted el

To: James Strauss who wrote (49695)	5/7/2000 5:57:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Jim just popping here for a quick response... If the FED raises .50 basis points, i think this market will tank very hard..the street will not think it's over, but instead, "that he'll do it again", once this occurs... i've said this a zillion times..the only thing that stops this remarkable freight train, is interests rates..period... i see this entire last 6 weeks or so, as precursor to a mild recession..probably 1st & 2nd quarter of 01... as for 5 rate hikes, 3 were already assumed to be taken back...he never wanted to raise last year..besides the outside influences, there never was any reason to cut rates...i make the count 2 rate hikes..and all 5 haven't even put a dent in this economy... so any further heavy handed hikes will cause serious market declines...the street looking out 6-9 months will perceive lower profits, slow consumer spending, and this coming recession... of course knowing AG as we all do..i doubt he'll allow the slow down to be too elongated...heck he can always cut again, and then we'll be off to the races... i'm playing hit and run, both long and short now...there has never been a time in my trading life that i have shorted this much...it makes sense, it works, and it's very profitable... all in all Jim..i have things heading much lower mid to late this month...then??? who the heck knows...and this is only a guess... all the P&F indicators are positive right now..but from deeply oversold levels..so buy signals came quickly as expected...sell signals now can be generated the same way... just call me Beara now/perma bull later.... regards..OJ

To: James Strauss who wrote (49695)	5/7/2000 6:50:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Since we've had 5 already I should probably just stick to being a chartist, but I think a case could be easily made that there have really only have been two meaningful rate hikes, since the first three really were unwinding the last three easings at the "height", or low, of the SEA crisis. Since that low, many eco indicators (to which I refer to charts and not the fundamental arguments behind the data) have not only troughed/bottomed but are in fact accelerating. Not only are the numbers rising, but they are rising at an accelerated rate. FOr example Employment cost year on year change at 5% is highest since 93 and above that in 87. Consumption numbers are showing growth rates not seen since 1984. High consumption plus low unemployment invariably lead to increasing inflation numbers. And despite all the talk about "productivity" saving the day, the decade of the 90's had lower real corporate earnings than the 50's or 60's. So what's that all about? While you might be right that a 1/2 point increase might be the last for a period of time, at the same time there is ample historical evidence showing the fed steadily raising in times of increasingly inflationary outlooks. And that, according to charts of leading and lagging economic indicators, appears to be the case. I'm neither arguing for or against tightenings, just suggesting that it seems more likely to me that the Fed might take the chance of slowing the economic expansion in order to extend its life, rather than not be proactive and have to take dramatic measures later. And it may well be that SEA/Y2K related monetary policy have brought the economy closer to the later point in time than the former. Guess we won't know for sure until everything plays out. Sure makes me glad I'm a chartist ;)