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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: feminvstr who wrote (4148)	5/8/2000 9:24:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

Kimberly -- I appreciate your effort in contacting Avanex for current data. That's important in analyzing the company as it stands today. My point was and is that GG painted a false picture of Avanex and I compared data that was available at the time to show how it differed from his actual report. When you talked to Mr. Florence, did you ask 1) how many persons were working in manufacturing at the time of Mr. Gilder's visit? 2) how many square feet was dedicated to manufacturing at the time? 3) of the future 226,000 sq. feet how many will be manufacturing, how many will be in North America, and how many will be under roof? And, finally, 4) what percentage of products being assembled at the time of GG's visit was the PowerMux? If the goal is to determine if GG's article was misleading these would be appropriate questions. Pat

To: feminvstr who wrote (4148)	5/8/2000 9:27:00 PM
From: OWN STOCK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

Pat is largely right, Gilder largely wrong One spin: AVNX is the next big thing in telecommunications. Another spin: AVNX is a one-product company, covered by one or two patents, with a very high labor content for that one product. They are so concerned with this issue, they have made agreements with PRC to have it made over there. (Everyone knows how well they respect patents over there) Fujitsu, by virtue of holding joint assignment to their one key patent, effectively owns them already. (Everyone knows how well Japanese held companies do.) Cao has a better product design than he had at ETEK, but IMO, not the ultimate design, which will be an active semiconductor chip, and have no labor content. Given the basic technology, passive optics, the company has low barriers to competition (basically only their patent, and we discussed the dubious value of that above). Their product may have some success, until someone comes up with a slight tweak to improve it, and leapfrogs their IP. They have no FUNDAMENTAL barriers to competition. Since they have not qualified their product to Bellcore specifications, sales are on an interim basis...for evaluation by their large customers. In other words, people are buying samples. If it proves to be reliable, which will take at least six months to prove, they may have follow-on orders. Bottom line: no big technological woopie here folks...definitely NOT the next telespasm...bet short term on this one, if at all... -Own

To: feminvstr who wrote (4148)	5/9/2000 12:47:00 AM
From: greedsgd_2000	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5853

"My perception is Pat looks at the immediate where George presents the future." Now that was stated nicely, however, lets be honest: ITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TECHNOLOGICAL VISIONARY VS A MYOPIC BEANCOUNTER. Anyone can rattle off already disclosed "Risk Factors", add in some bean counting, and rip a company to bits, people with those talents are a dime a dozen. Gilder, despite being imperfect, has developed a world class expertise in his area, and no amount of nitpicking is going to take that away.