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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (110046)	5/10/2000 1:24:00 AM
From: kapkan4u	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1577188

<I can see that such an event is possible but is this a probable threat in your view? What odds would you give for such an event?> I think the odds are very high thanks to Clinton and DNC taking Chinese political money. If Chinese have evidence of Clinton's knowledge they will blackmail him into submission. Chinese know that the best time to attack Taiwan is while Clinton is in office. Kap

To: Charles R who wrote (110046)	5/10/2000 1:24:00 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1577188

Here's some info on Dresden yields thats more than just a rumor: These comments from analyst Jonathan Joseph are from 4/27 but I hadn't noticed the comment about Dresden yields: Processor demand looks good, the market tightening. As we mentioned in our Intel note, something is happening out there that is in direct contrast to recent comments by Microsoft. Despite both Intel's and AMD's best efforts to increase output, the market is becoming increasingly tight. We have recent reports of Intel "decommits" to its top customers and growing indications that AMD supply is beginning to tighten. Demand appears to be accelerating, which is unusual for this time of the year. Over the last 4-5 years, April/May have been the bottom in seasonal sales for AMD and Intel. What is going on? 1) In the U.S., corporate demand was understated in Q4 because of Y2K concerns. These lockdowns are coming off. In addition, consumer spending continued unseasonably strong into Q1 and appears to be continuing into Q2. Finally, U.S. corporations, Intel included, have started a program of PC "giveaways" that will allow employees to work more from home. 2) About 40% of the market is from outside the Americas, and that market remains very strong, particularly in China, which is now the third largest country market outside of the U.S. and Japan, which is also seeing a strong pickup despite their economic problems. Japan represents about 8% of sales while China is slightly less. 3) Despite the collapse of the dot.coms, demand for Internet access continues to explode. The fact is, PCs are the preferred hardware portal for accessing the Internet. Shortage helps AMD, but it is doing well on its own. This is a perfect environment for AMD. With Intel management admitting they are 5% short of market demand (we hear the actual number could be more like 10%), AMD is filling the gap. But AMD is not a passive beneficiary. 1) We believe the on-plan introduction of Thurderbird and Duron are a major plus for the company. These two parts will not only reduce costs (by cutting $10-12 out of packaging costs) but will be run on 0.18-micron process, which reduces die cost by 40%, or better. These chips also have better performance that the Slot A, and the company hopes to hit 1.5GHz by Q1. 2) The company's ramp of its 0.18-micron copper process in Dresden appears to be running smoothly, with yields meeting or exceeding those on the aluminum process in Austin. The Duron will only be run on the aluminum process in Austin, while the Thunderbird will be run on aluminum in Austin (probably for insurance) and on copper in Dresden. The limiting factor: infrastructure. The one possible limiting factor for the company in ramping the new products, which should have a 421-pin package (compared to Intel's 370 pin), will be infrastructure. The new family of processors will require a new chipset and redesigned motherboards. It was a lack of supporting infrastructure that prevented greater shipments of the Athlon in Q4. The company is aware that chipsets could limit new processor shipments to "few hundred thousand" units in Q2, but believes a Q3 ramp in socketed chipset output by VIA, SiS, and Acer Labs, should allow for a smooth build of new processors in the second half. Petz

To: Charles R who wrote (110046)	5/10/2000 1:41:00 AM
From: Yougang Xiao	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1577188

EP, Chuck: <<Has anything changed for the worse>> basically the same as in the few weeks back. China is watching whether Mr. Chen - Taiwan's new prez, will recognize the "One China" principle and Mr. Chen is trying to preserve Taiwan's de facto independence without openly and officially acknowledge what China is demanding - "One China" principle. A creative solution might be found to satisfy the need of both sides, therefore the status quo can be maintained and war be avoided. <<I can see that such an event is possible but is this a probable threat in your view? What odds would you give for such an event?>> I'd say somewhere below but close to 50%. National pride is the #1 motivator here and pride could be blind as well, sadly. <<Also, why do you say "AMD in particular"? Do you see anything other than UMC chipset and motherboard exposure?>> AMD MPU's infrastructures are perceived and in fact in Taiwan. If war or blockade occur, Athlon is toast.

To: Charles R who wrote (110046)	5/10/2000 9:13:00 AM
From: xun	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1577188

Chuck, Yougang, eplace et al The odds that China "invades" Taiwan, IMHO, are smaller than an asteroid hits the earth in the next 5 years. The tricks are to define the context and conflict should any event occurs. The worst case scenario would be that China hits some Taiwan's outer islands to scare people. Even that odds are much smaller than NASDAQ breaks below 2000 in the next 5 years. You can almost view the Chinese government's words as a contrarian indicator. If they are silent and doing something, that would be very scary. Just my two cents. panic PS: I never panic over Taiwan situation since I can remember anything.