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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave B who wrote (42130)	5/12/2000 3:55:00 PM
From: Richard Habib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Dell says 30% of hardware rev is laptops. Due to higher ASPs for laptops I think you could make a ballpark estimate that 20% of Dell's units are laptops. If you assume the workstation market returns to 98 levels - a bit of a stretch, roughtly 1.5M workstation units will be on the NT platform. If you assume RMBS is in 66% of those - a bit of a stretch - about 1M workstations will ship in 2000 with RMBS. Dell's units are growing at roughly 25% so they may ship 15M units this year. Remove 20% for laptops about 12M, remove 3K or so for workstations - about 11.7M. Servers are their fastest growing segment - they have about 16% marketshare. Haven't reduced this to units but I think you should assume a couple million. Thus a ballpark is 9.7M PCs shipped by Dell. Of this how many in Optiplex and B lines. I would guess the B line is relatively limited. Even if you assume a 1/3 of all Dell PCs are RMBS you are left with 3-4M units. With workstations and since Dell is most of non-workstation RMBS you have 4-5M boxes with RMBS. Total boxes this year will be about 135M thus optimistic about 3.7% of boxes will be RMBS this year. Rich

To: Dave B who wrote (42130)	5/12/2000 4:12:00 PM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Dave re: < but I don't believe that they've introduced a non-RDRAM PC/workstation product line since January.> I'm assuming the 810 based product was intro'd after that. And I expect a lot of 815 based product when that starts shipping from Intel. That gets RDRAM into the Dell $800 systems (remember that they don't compete in the really low-end). I think their version of low end will continue to be SDRAM for this year. And for RDRAM in an $800 box the price will really have to come down. Any guesses what % of their 11.8M was laptops? From Dell's report: "...workstations and notebook PCs rose to 48 percent of total system sales." Assuming W/S's were around 100K units for the quarter, (a WAG from the IDC report), notebooks had to be a large percent. Tough to estimate units since Dell doesn't give asp's or units in their reports. p.s. Nice to have a civilized disagreement, isn't it? <G> That's for sure.