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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (35347)	5/23/2000 10:48:00 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BTB and business prospects are excellent. Justa, no question. However, many of these stocks (have you looked at LRCX lately?) are being priced as if a recession is imminent. What do you postulate the odds are of a fed induced recession? Even if there were a recession, do you think that cell phone growth and internet appliance development are going to stop or slow enough so that chip capacity is sufficient to slow semi cap ex? TIA Jay

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (35347)	5/24/2000 1:55:00 AM
From: Ross	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi, I missed all the talking heads. Do they say that a b2b of over 1.4 but falling is bad? Do they not differentiate between b2b over 1 and rising b2b? Can they take out a spreadsheet and figure out how long it would take to turn the entire gnp into semi-cap equipment if the b2b rises every month? Maybe I should do that. Or are they saying that (based on previous experience) whenever the b2b turns, that means it is heading below 1 soon? Taking a look at Godfried's charts, it seems that it sometimes does that and sometimes doesn't. It does look like in 1997 the b2b dropped a little, orders rose for 2 more months, and then bam. But that was a much lower b2b. Thanks. Ross