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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: areokat who wrote (25306)	5/24/2000 6:04:00 PM
From: shamsaee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I will clarify what I meant.I have no trading experience,so I am not looking at TA to be a trader.I will use it in combination with valuations in the future.I am trying to get a grasp of TA(currently reading on it) as warning signs to reduce my risk exposure.This could be a variety of options such as selling a portion of a holding once it gets well ahead of itself.I would also use other Valuations like sector comparison.Then I would allow a certain percent of higher valuation for gorillas and different percentage to a lesser extent for kings. In the future,I would use the same metrics when I want to by a certain stock.I am curious to know if you have bought anything this year in your own portfolio and if so which stocks and when. Having started reading on TA,I believe there is a General misperception by most people,that TA is a traders tool.My understanding of the basic principles is that it is a demand and supply study and very much relates to stock market movements.These movements are short,medium and longer signals and are very useful to a trader or a long term buy and hold investor. One can Argue that the upside potential is limited.That is very true and in many cases you will sell prematurely but as we are seeing now markets correct themselves and present great opportunities to reinvest in the same company.

To: areokat who wrote (25306)	5/25/2000 11:36:00 AM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>. intc and pfe have been in the portfolio for over 5 years. On a time weighted basis it is up 108% << A comment on timing, long term holding and diversification: I see you mentioned PFE (Pfizer), a company that is not a G&K candidate, as a long term hold. I have seen a number of references to PFE on this thread over the past 9 months or so, mostly mentioned as a stock to be sold since it was performing poorly. I noticed these because my family has also held PFE for many years. They have been one of the best performing companies in one of the most profitable industries in the world yet, for most part, 1999 was a very poor year for their stock performance. While my G&K stocks were vaulting up, PFE was slumping, but I decided not to sell (a decision that looked dumber and dumber as the months wore on). Recently, just as the NASDAQ has cascaded down, PFE has been moving up (up about 50% since the end of March). It has been a comforting offset to my G&K stocks. The issue of timing has been raised again on this thread, and I certainly admit that it is a subject I revisit frequently. I find the idea so attractive that I continue to try at least some timing aspects on some of the stocks I own. However, what jumps out at me about PFE is that I did not reduce my holdings near the top, nor add to them at the recent bottom. Why is that worth mentioning? Because I worked for PFE, and I know many people who still do that I talk with frequently. I watch the stock price every single day, and I read all their press releases and many other items written about them. Yet I have been unable to find the tops and bottoms. Why is that? Possible answer #1 is that I am an imbecile. That's plausible, but then an answer at another end of the spectrum is that I'm smarter than the market. I "knew" that the Viagra induced run up in the stock price was overdone, and I said this to many people. But the stock just kept climbing, proving me wrong. Later, after it had fallen, I "knew" it was too low and destined for a comeback, but month after month it continued to slump, again proving me wrong. And therein lies a big problem with timing - it's just too easy to jump too soon. Stocks make too many false starts and endure too many reversals, so that ultimately, catching a bottom or selling a top is just dumb luck. It would seem that the lesson here, yet again, is that with quality companies the best strategy is LTB&H. On the other hand (for our evil twins)... Perhaps it is possible to time stocks using valuations and mechanical rules. (Although anyone who has bought a "value"stock the past few years has likely watched it's fall into ever more "valuable" territory). Perhaps a 20% rule would work. Identify what you believe to be a bottom in a stock you wish to own but do not buy it until it moves up 20%. A 20% move may indicate that a true reversal is underway. Hey, tekboy, ready for another timing test?? StockHawk