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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (115026)	6/8/2000 5:29:00 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572208

As for my posts this AM, I regret bringing this stuff to the thread. It seems lately that almost any negative or critical comments wrt AMD is met with almost derision. Frankly, it is starting to sound like the Intel thread of last year. I appreciate your posts about your concerns. Even if I don't agree 100% its necessary to keep some sort of perspective (and not base my investment decisions on the "certainty" that AMD will be $750+ by Christmas <g>) I might agree with your idea here about why AMD is not trading at a higher price now, but I think $2001 earnings will actually be higher then forecasted (and I think the forecasts will be revised up again this year) so I'm still strongly bullish on AMD. Tim

To: tejek who wrote (115026)	6/8/2000 5:30:00 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572208

Ted re <<Mani is wrong..>> No I am not. Yahoo has been reporting lower 2001 earnings vs 2000 for at least 6 weeks. AMD has hit several highs over the past 6 weeks, despite the poor market condition. Re <<I am also hearing concerns of a possible slowdown in the chip business. >> From who? Please post your link or let us know where you are hearing this. Re <<It seems lately that almost any negative or critical comments wrt AMD is met with almost derision.>> I would not say derision. But I would expect that if people disagree with you, they will let you know and provide their argument. You said this AM that you have discovered why AMD has been having a hard time past few weeks, when in reality, compared to the market it only had a hard time yesterday. That's my opinion. Mani

To: tejek who wrote (115026)	6/8/2000 5:45:00 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572208

Ted, It seems lately that almost any negative or critical comments wrt AMD is met with almost derision. I hope that it wasn't from any of my posts. I think we need to discuss the possible challenges, the pessimistic case, the worst case scenario as well as rosy scenarios and as time goes on, we should evaluate how the data that's available fits with these scenarios. My comment on the Yahoo estimate / lack of new all time highs is that it is hard for the analysts / institutions to believe that AMD can possibly grow in the future. They only believe the past growth (from the quarterly statements), and after each Q, they change the estimate to that quarter annualized with no growth. I guess we have to live with it. It has been profitable just living of the present successes. We still have an un-tapped potential when the consensus of analysts' opinions realized that this company can in fact grow. Joe

To: tejek who wrote (115026)	6/8/2000 5:52:00 PM
From: Gopher Broke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572208

Ted, I am also hearing concerns of a possible slowdown in the chip business I think you have to be very careful of the source of this kind of information. I fully expect Intel to do badly this quarter and they will no doubt blame a slowdown. Could they be softening us for a preannouncement? I am amazed that Intel have not lost ground much faster with stores not selling PIII systems faster than 600 MHz. They may still rule the big business sector, but they are fast losing the small business as well as the home markets.

To: tejek who wrote (115026)	6/8/2000 6:08:00 PM
From: minnow68	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572208

Ted, You wrote "It seems lately that almost any negative or critical comments wrt AMD is met with almost derision" I saw more disappointment on this forum about T-bird than anyplace else in the world. And I believe you are correct to worry. The current positives of AMD are nothing short of stunning, but nothing in investing is a sure thing. My own personal worry list used to be: 1) Will Dresden work? This has been knocked off. 2) Will T-bird have acceptable performance and will motherboards be available. This seems to be knocked off also. 3) Will Willy have a small die size? My thinking is that a huge die will allow AMD to have a Mustang with a huge cache with the same production cost. This seems to have been knocked off. So I'm looking for a new list of things to worry about. From your posts, we could start this list with: 1) Will Y2001 earnings be lower than Y2000 earnings. 2) Slowdown of semiconductor sector. I'll add: 3) Possible blowout performance by Willy. Mike

To: tejek who wrote (115026)	6/8/2000 8:10:00 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572208

Ted,Re: <I regret bringing ...> Sorry you regret, and sorry if you feel bad about it. I agree with you, to a large degree, and also with Mani. I have seen the price of AMD seem to be in a downslope in the absence of immediate positive news for over a month. Some of this can be attributed to the overall market. I have considered the forecasts of future earnings(decrease in 2001 vs 2000) as listed on YAHOO, etc. as one of the reasons. They have been there for at least the last three months. When you read the individual reports that make up the decreases it is clear that taxes are the reason given for the lowered 2001 earnings. Many do not look at or know the reasons. I seriously hope that we will come off 'tax free' in Q3 but doubt it. There should be some serious tax loss provisions that can be tucked into the communications sale. I think that there remains, despite the large sucking sound from the NAZ internet stocks, that there is a lot of frivolous investing going on. I woiuld not be surprised to see new high numbers for AMD short interest on the next revision. The months from April to November have long been stagnant months for the chip stocks. (The old rule was 'buy on thanksgiving and sell on Easter'. ) Keep posting your observations. Some will be right, some will be wrong, and I, for one, appreciate every one of them. If a wrong observation(and I'm not saying you're wrong 'cause I agree with you) causes me to think of something, I have gained by it. thank you for your opinions! tgptndr

To: tejek who wrote (115026)	6/8/2000 10:30:00 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572208

Ted - RE: Tax issue I haven't read all the posts about this so sorry if some of it has already been posted. This is clearly going to be a messed up year when dealing with earnings projections because of the loss carryovers. We don't know when AMD will start to get taxed and therefore we don't know how overall EPS growth will be 2000 -> 2001. I think the proper way to look at this year's earnings is not what AMD has reported, but with what AMD has reported minus the % tax AMD expects to pay next year, 31%. That way a proper comparison can be made to next year. The analysts know this. In at least one report that has been posted to this thread, an analyst had two projections for this year, one for taxed and one for non taxed (the official projection), which AMD said to expect during the Q1 CC. jc-news.com The First Call estimates are for the non-taxed amount, so it is going to look like 2001 is smaller than 2000. Also, when we make projections with PE using this year's earnings we should use what we expect AMD to make this year minus an assumed tax, even though AMD wasn't taxed in Q1. This non tax thing is just a one time thing so it shouldn't be used for projecting growth, just like selling off divisions isn't included in PE projections. You said you were worried that in the past month or so 2000 projections became larger than 2001's. Here is some data from First Call: (last X days) 7 30 60 90 2000 2 4 18 17 (# of estimates 2001 2 5 13 10 revised up) So while analysts have been increasing 2000 estimates in the past 60 - 90 days, they haven't always increased 2001 estimates at the time. This is basically what you saw was reported, but just the end result. I don't think the analysts' not raising 2001 estimates is a negative. If they were unsure of 2001, they would lower 2001 estimates, and none have done so. I think they just don't know what to expect for the whole 2001, at least that is how I feel. RE: "As for my posts this AM, I regret bringing this stuff to the thread. It seems lately that almost any negative or critical comments wrt AMD is met with almost derision. Frankly, it is starting to sound like the Intel thread of last year." Yeah, that has happened here more so than in the past. At least this thread is VERY up to date in AMD's doings. It seems some people on that thread are just coming to terms with the problems Intel has had for some time. There is a whole lot more discussion about Intel's blind dedication to DRDRAM. It is almost like group therapy. ;) But what makes it bad is some RamBUST investors have gone over there acting like therapists! It is like a tobacco company trying to calm someone who has received lung problems as a result of smoking the company's cigarettes. ;)

To: tejek who wrote (115026)	6/9/2000 3:22:00 AM
From: manfredhasler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572208

Re: "As for my posts this AM, I regret bringing this stuff to the thread. It seems lately that almost any negative or critical comments wrt AMD is met with almost derision. Frankly, it is starting to sound like the Intel thread of last year." ted, As a careful and mostly silent reader of this thread I feel compelled to add my view on this topic. When I noticed your observation on a possible reason for the lackluster behavior of our stock, I had the following thoughts: since this observation is made by ted, which I do respect because of his overall post, I do consider it relevant. However the impact on the stock might, since I am long, not affect my decisions much because it will be corrected over time. However, due to the fact that the post was from you, I considered your finding very worth to note. Because my guess was that you did indeed much research for a possible reason on AMDs stock move. And the best you could found did not worry me much. In the contrary it did reaffirm me on the strength of our stock. Or put differently: I did not perceive your post as negative for the stock or the thread at all. The answer from Mani, viewed in the perspective of a lurker, did not really offset the overall merit of your post. It just gave a different view, valuable as well. I do not speak for all of the lurkers here but I think that many of them like the lively, timely and thoughtful post here. And most of the time we just do not have any sensible comments to add. In this sense I just would like to encourage you to continue to share your findings, analysis and thoughts with us. Thanks and regards Manfred