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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (6791)	8/2/2000 1:35:10 PM
From: Jim Lurgio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

August 2, 2000 (SEOUL) -- Mobile phone subscribers fell by 1 million persons since June, when the government ceased subsidies to domestic mobile manufacturers. nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com Total subscribers at Korea's big five mobile phone companies, including SK Telecom Co., Ltd., were estimated at 26.18 million persons at the end of July, down 1 million persons from the 27.32 million at the end of May. (Maeil Business Newspaper, Korea) <Visit News Center for more Asian news.>

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (6791)	8/2/2000 2:02:42 PM
From: sisuman	Respond to of 34857

A very interesting press release from Reuters. Places a different perspective on the so-called 3rd quarter shortfall. Tero, can you define the six new models referred to? Also, the reference to the new category of "personal trusted devices" is a different view of the future - instead of a fight between call phones and PDA's we can expect a merging? Future products of the next several years may be rather wild departures - product definition and differentiation, based on strong R&D efforts will be more important than ever. LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Nokia, the world's largest mobile phone maker, sought to shore up its battered share price on Tuesday by clarifying to investors why it had postponed the introduction of new models. After years of investor adulation for the company, Nokia's finance director Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo found himself fielding probing questions at a high-profile technology conference here. This follows a dramatic fall in the stock, which at one stage plunged by 25 percent after Nokia warned last week third-quarter earnings would lag those of the second quarter. Kallasvuo was at pains to explain why Nokia had postponed the introduction of the new models, but said that while profits would drop because it would have to depend for longer on ageing, lower margin products, it would not be hurt in the long run. He attempted to dismiss the delay as a matter of internal expectations, as opposed to competitive pressure, a concept apparently lost on investors who have dumped the stock since last week's statement. "It's very important to understand that we are talking about expectation delay, not market delay," he said in an effort to explain why Nokia's newest model phones have been pushed back until late in the third quarter. Some delays are less problematic than others, he said. "Expectation delay" is something a company can still control, while a market delay is something beyond its control and a matter that competitors can capitalise upon, he said. The new products are mainly high margin Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) Internet phones which will hardly contribute to the bottom line until the fourth quarter. The warning came as a shock to investors who have come to admire the company's solid, sequential quarter-on-quarter growth. Kallasvuo said that because the company would introduce six new products late in the third quarter, it would not be able to maintain its average selling price. Older products were becoming cheaper without them being replaced by higher value mobile phones. "By definition when new products come up, profit margins go up. With new products we can upgrade our pricing," Kallasvuo told the conference, which was held by Robertson Stephens, the U.S. investment bank which focuses on technology companies. As the new products would be out on the market before the competition, Nokia expected no loss of market share. Instead, Kallasvuo reiterated that the Finnish company would gain several percentage points of market share in the second half. This means Nokia expects its world market share to climb from nearly 28 percent in May. Kallasvuo also tried to ease investor's nerves about component shortages which had hurt profits at competitors such as Ericsson of Sweden and Philips of the Netherlands. His company, Europe's second-largest company by stock market value after Vodafone Group <VOD.L> before it shocked the markets last week, had indeed felt the impact of component shortages. "It also had an impact on us, but we have been able to manage," he said. But tightness was easing, he said. "At the moment it (the supply situation) is easier than in the spring. It's not an issue and it will not prevent us from meeting our pretty ambitious goals." Nokia believes phones will soon be dead. Instead, Kallasvuo introduced the new catch-all phrase of "personal trusted devices" for the converging class of mobile phones and handheld computers that can to display pictures, pipe data and place calls. To underline that Nokia's confidence remained intact, he dismissed criticism that his company was late to enter the Japanese market and replied that Nokia's market position meant it was confident it could take on Japanese competition. Sisuman

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (6791)	8/2/2000 2:15:59 PM
From: Peter J Hudson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero, Are you really calling CDMA a niche standard as compared to PDC? >>Right now, the best mobile handsets in Japan are PDC models. That's because vendors have been spending billions to develop them and will continue to do so. It's not possible for a niche standard to match the R&D muscle.<< I seem to remember you explaining that Japan had cut their own throat by going with PDC. Now PDC is a monster standard with R&D muscle? I can understand your defense of GSM, first to market, economies of scale, it is the 2G monster, but PDC? You're losing (not loosing) credibility. CDMA is the next monster standard, it doesn't matter the prefix or suffix, it's still CDMA. Pete Going fishing.

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (6791)	8/2/2000 3:33:50 PM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero: I-mode is the niche standard. So is WAP. TCP/IP is the internet standard. And 100 million dialup users are comfortable with 56 kbps and less. So, forget phone design and I-mode content. All that is temporary. If 50 KBPS is available on the move, everybody is going to go directly to their favorite content on the internet. And if 144 kbps is a real possiblity, then many will sacrifice a home line to use the internet in their backyard or anywhere. Arun >>No, it doesn't. High data speed offers a chance to get out very compelling handsets and content. It doesn't guarantee it. Right now, the best mobile handsets in Japan are PDC models. That's because vendors have been spending billions to develop them and will continue to do so. It's not possible for a niche standard to match the R&D muscle. The results are showing - in phone size, retail prices and the quality of color displays and the number of sites developed for iMode. >>

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (6791)	8/2/2000 3:33:52 PM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 34857

Tero: I think you are missing the most important point of the evolution of wireless. It is going to be a multi device market. Wireless is no longer restricted to handsets. Wireless communications will follow us from handsets to PDA's to autos to notebook computers. Speed will be more important as the complexity of the device increases. Size creates more room for complexity. Therefore, speed will be more important for newer and larger wireless appliances accessing the internet than the cell phone, i. e. Dell notebooks. Telematics and Bluetooth are two great bridges for wireless to attract exciting new products into the auto and computer industries. Up til now, the issue of speed has prevented companies like Dell from investing in wireless modems for their computers becuase no one is intersted in 14 kpbs internet speeds. The incredible opportunities in 3G CDMA will force these companies to invest in the untethered world of wirless. Good luck!!

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (6791)	8/3/2000 2:02:19 PM
From: Kent Rattey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

<If 120 operators don't give GPRS the ultimate economies of scale in mobile data, I don't know what will. Balancing the economies of scale with the potential benefits of rival technologies is hard, of course - but looking at the order books is pretty simple. It seems to me that operators have made their decision by an overwhelming consensus.> <And that gets us to the real point - the price of handsets> The handsets are a commodity, and by definition, their prices will come down as they catch up to the network. Now that 3G throughput is becoming a reality, superior games and applications will be written. The supply will create the demand. The operators that have chosen inferior networks based on cost and politics will die a slow death. Anyone in telecommunications knows, the quality of the network is ultimately the single most determining factor of success. Sure, you can prolong the death spiral with major marketing muscle or cutthroat pricing, but without adequate infrastructure, at best, your a dressed up corpse. In the competitive landscape, if you don't do it, somebody else will. T is facing this with the likes of GBLX, Level 3 and Quest. Their LD business is eroding so fast even they can't believe it. It's a nice 30 dollar stock right now. On all fronts, this is a broadband race; DSL, cable, 3G, the last mile, DWDM, etc. This business is not that difficult to figure out. It's very similar to real estate; Bandwidth, Bandwidth, Bandwidth(ask JDSU or SDLI). The game vendors and application vendors will follow the market. They don't have great allegiance to anyone. If your network can't handle the traffic, it's simply "next!" (not even a "sorry"). They certainly won't wait around for you to get your little duckies in row. They will modify to the network/standard to get their product out the door. Trust me on that one. Although I haven't been employed in the industry in Europe or outside the US, IMO, these 120 operators are painting themselves into a very small corner. Ironically, it maybe HDR that gets them out of it. In this competitive environment, I would not want to be out there selling against superior networks or under the employ of a company with an inferior network. Noooo thanks! Kent