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Technology Stocks : Semiconductor and Semi-Equipment Analysts - Their Calls -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (92)	8/10/2000 11:20:20 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 195

Thanks for providing the other side of the story. Always worthwhile to read your posts.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (92)	8/10/2000 11:59:24 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 195

>>Not all the chip companies have embarked on 300mm, and those that have are on different time schedules, and can halt 300mm build out should over capacity raise its head. << Leaving them with a multi-billion dollar hole in the ground and no way to recoup the investment? I doubt it. They're more likely to try to build out faster in order to beat the other guys I realize you were joking around a bit, but there really is nothing preventing companies from stopping at the fab shell phase, which is only 10% of the cost of a $2B 300mm fab. DRAM sales reached a record high in bit terms in 1996. They reach a "record high" every year. Tracking the gap between cost per bit vs. price per bit would be more fruitful, but I have never seen any data for this. Bob