Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: w0z who wrote (36630)	8/11/2000 9:16:13 AM
From: Norm Demers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

AMAT gapping up some this morning along with SMDK and SNDK. Semis going to run today ?

To: w0z who wrote (36630)	8/11/2000 9:25:42 AM
From: willcousa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

One reason we are generating our own momentum is that we are providing great productivity gains to our end-users. Thus the expansion is not just for entertainment or personal pleasure any longer but is, for the most part, cost-justifiable. Thus the investment in communications infrastructure pays for itself rather quickly and provides profits to pay for the next expansion. The weight of this dynamic makes this cycle really different from those before - and more sustainable.

To: w0z who wrote (36630)	8/11/2000 2:17:46 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Interesting discussion about the semi- equipment cycle! Has technology reached the point where it is generating its own momentum by shortening life cycles and lowering costs in every aspect of our lives? For example cell phones are obsolete in 2 years and old market models based on percent penetration no longer apply. Markets are completely turning themselves over in very short cycles in many areas...not to mention the new applications that are announced daily. That's part of the story. Apart from consumer products, there are enormous changes being made in global communications networks. These cycles are far different from consumer products. They take far longer to pick up speed (much like real estate cycles) and far longer to slow down. I've been watching carriers --- IXCs, CLECS, ILECS, ISPS, and now BLECS (business. . .) --- and the old entrenched carriers have been the slowest to recognize the need to change, but they're getting there. Greenfield carriers like Williams, Qwest, Level3 and 360Networks are leading the way. So while you have consumer products obsoleting more rapidly than ever before you have a major shift in carrier spending that will take years to peak. Wherever you see DWDM being implemented in the backbone you will see switches, routers, and access devices added to direct and manage the bandwidth. To use a skyscraper metaphor, picture every city in the world with gaping holes, block after block after block, where skyscraper foundations are being dug. Picture big signs describing the square footage that will soon be available. Then visualize the finished building complete with walls, lights, furniture, and all sorts of office equipment. It's the same with optical networks. As Dan Smith said, "Gaping basements are just table stakes. . ." Well, he actually said "DWDM. . ." :) And what does this have to do with AMAT? Ian Stromberg said it the other day --- every part of the electronic/photonic age uses chips and behind all these chips is the equipment that makes them. I submit this cycle is not about to end any more than all those holes will remain empty. I don't know how to time the market but I'm quite certain we won't see the Nasdaq do a repeat of mid-April. As I see it, managers are sitting on the sidelines waiting to add to their favorites. They have entry prices nailed and they'll buy when they get there. If the market takes off before they're reached, they'll buy on the way up. They're not stupid. They've sent their scouts to every fiber optics and networking conference this year. They know the score. And they know if they wait for enough fear to build, they'll get the price they want. I'm not a pro, but I'm smart enough to know they have a lot to teach me. End of rant. . . :) Pat

To: w0z who wrote (36630)	8/12/2000 11:18:05 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Bill, Technology brings us faster, cheaper, better, and revolutionary. The competitive, free enterprise system surprises us with its ability to quickly meet real and perceived demands. It is almost an insult to AMAT to infer that its equipment will not allow the semi makers to meet and exceed demand. The roadmap for shrinks has accelerated. Couple this with 300mm and the confidence we have that AMATs 300mm tools will at least be as productive as the 200mm (wafer throughput), and overcapacity is a given. (Some, but not all, tongue in cheek".