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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (4884)	8/13/2000 11:18:04 PM
From: porn_start878	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

I agree partially, those sales are gone forever. But the CPUs are not. If we are facing the rest of Q3 and Q4 that will both be supply limited, having those extra CPUs on-hand will be helpful. Indeed, it seems likely that AMD is limiting is production because of the mobo shortage. Here is a quote from the Q3'99 CC : Q: If we took away the uncertainty about Taiwan, and you took away demand issues, how much do you think you would have been able to do, how many Athlons would you have produced? -- A: Historically, a million units in the second quarter of a full production was not unreasonable, 1.5M in the third quarter. This is an example of what might have happened had the Taiwan issue not come about. jc-news.com There is another quote says that AMD do all the possible to prevent from building inventory; I can't find it back... So it's likely that the inventories aren't over 200K. Maqs

To: Joe NYC who wrote (4884)	8/14/2000 12:07:06 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Joe, <I agree partially, those sales are gone forever. But the CPUs are not. If we are facing the rest of Q3 and Q4 that will both be supply limited, having those extra CPUs on-hand will be helpful.> In theory that sounds right. In practice, companies go easy on production once inventories build up. AMD produced about 7.5Mu in Q2 and can produce probably 8 or 8.5Mu in Q3. It is a safe bet that that will not happen. From Q3 results, we will be able to estimate how much product is being put into inventory at the end of Q3. My guess is inventories will move up slightly from about 1Mu to 1.5Mu at the end of Q3. AMD will be and should be cautious in pushing production right now because there is not much danger of Intel being product constrained in Q3 and Q4. So, I doubt AMD will be building product as aggressively as it was before the chipset problem surfaced. Chuck