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Technology Stocks : AWARE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael F. Donadio who wrote (586)	8/16/2000 2:57:06 AM
From: Scrapps	Respond to of 2404

Michael, you are one of the savvy DSL posters I referred to. Rumors bother me not only b'cuz they get our hopes up, but they can be misread by some. It maybe best to wait for ADI to tell us about their forthcoming announcement. Then again it might be safe to say I've heard the Alcatel ADSL chipsets are not very desirable and are clumsy. It took them forever to ship G.Lite code...and how well that works has been in question. Myself, I have never understood why ALA hadn't licensed with AWRE from the git-go. Also you know that the Newbridge Mainstreet express products are said to still be using ADI chips...even after ALA bought Newbridge. Remember...all is conjecture about a rumor. Now I’ll say this...I can point to an analyst report that mentions they feel ALA will step out of the ADSL chip business. So that part of the rumor is going around in many circles.

To: Michael F. Donadio who wrote (586)	8/16/2000 9:13:28 AM
From: Bobo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2404

Here is something I will probably regret saying... My guess is that the ADI cc completes the short term top for AWRE. Probably retreats to low-$40's until pre-Q3 buzz starts up. I suspect the runup in the last week was in anticipation of ADI bumping their ADSL forecast up significantly for the year to 10mm. This did not materialize. Thoughts on ADI cc... Lost market share to Globespan but still a very strong position and growth in ADSL due to international exposure and line driver market share. Mgt seems a bit in denial by saying "only companies shipping in quantity are ADI and ALA." Seems like they forgot about Globespan. TI is not a factor. Centillium is to early to really worry about but will be a factor in the end. Even with market share loss, it is hard to imagine less than 50% growth for their DSL business from 2000 to 2001. I wonder what % of their dsl shipments were multiport vs single port. I also wonder what their DSL chip shipment seq growth growth was (ex line drivers). The ALA rumor is very interesting. It doesn't make alot of sense given ALA's gorilla status but the rumor is clearly alive. ALA is not very good at analog and has a strong relationship with ADI for line drivers. It just seems bizarre for ALA to drop out of a $300mm business in which they lead and that noone but Aware and ADI longs have heard of this rumor. I have asked people at ALA and they only scratch their head. Stranger things have happened.

To: Michael F. Donadio who wrote (586)	8/16/2000 10:38:41 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2404

I keep hearing that ALA will decrease in the making of ADSL chips, though no one can explain why such a statement isn't absurd. A mid-level TXN friend of mine says that ALA chips are too expensive for CPE deployment, where the bulk of the unit volume is. His take was that ALA would do well in the telco DSLAM arena (obviously), but other chip makers (he thinks ADI and, of course, TXN) would capture the high volume CPE area. One person's perspective. Elroy