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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/19/2000 9:49:02 AM
From: Alias Shrugged	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Excellent post, Earlie - thank-you. But, what is CPQ talking about with this "parts shortage" nonsense?? biz.yahoo.com "Compaq chief says PC parts shortage worst ever" Thanks Mike

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/19/2000 10:48:44 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, thanks. That was a really fine post. One question: where is the 15% gold reserve (backing the Euro) held? Is it in the CB's of the component countries, or is it held separately by the ECB? Thanks again, yours was one of the most eloquent arguments for the Bear case I've seen on SI..

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/20/2000 3:38:05 PM
From: Alex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

As Emeril would say.... BAM. Nice post Earlie.

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/20/2000 4:01:46 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie that was a fine post and I agree with your analysis. I also like natural gas royalty trusts like HGT EPD paying some nice dividends and growing nicely (exponentially) good luck M. ps. Im praying that "torpedoe" you referred to wasnt related to the Kursk. Hoping that there was no US involvement.

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/20/2000 10:05:21 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

in your fine synopsis, you wrote: Note the recent first (of what will be a series of) interest rate increases (hello, Yen carry trade participants). This will positively nudge the Japanese consumer, but will crater the banks, insurance companies and financial entities (look for significant bankruptcy activity this fall). Actually, rate hike should help their insurers, no?

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/20/2000 10:11:43 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

It seems the gist of your view is that consumer sentiment is key here and with that I could not agree more. Any change in consumer behaviour towards the merely rational will be the end of this mania, first perhaps by pulling Asia into the toilet for round two. But you also say: " Sooner or later, the delightful ability of the U.S. to simply print more greenbacks with which to pay for imported products, is going to come to an end": Why? Hasn't so far. Will the Euro really rise to challenge the greenback. Not if AG has his way...

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/21/2000 12:00:07 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

earlie, i think you ought to mention that dram oversupply has been muted by the rdram fiasco. non-producing lines and low yields have effectively reduced output. this has definitely impacted dram pricing.

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/21/2000 1:22:55 AM
From: bela_ghoulashi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Buried in chips and inventory? biz.yahoo.com

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/21/2000 3:01:30 AM
From: allen menglin chen	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, I like your post and share it in a private stock chat room. Sighbase, who said he's from Europe, doesn't agree w/ some of your points. And I post his arguments here. Could u address it here? And probably to the guy who wrote it. His yhoo id is Sighbase. I think his email should be Sighbase@yahoo.com <<There are a lot of plain wrong statements in this: 1) US corporations overburdened with historic debt coming from lending in Europe. Neither do the statistics support the claim of historic debt or overburden, the debt that exists was taken on primariliy in the US market. 2) The Euro already _is_ the official currency of the EC, prices within member countries are marked in Euros, the previous currency is given only for a transition period. So how would the distribution of the paper and coin currency change perspectives for companies? Companies operating in Europe were required since last year to report in Euros and perform business among themselves and with governmental entities in Euros. Local currencies exist _only_ with regard to the consumer. As a business currency they are out of the picture already. I wrote and modified software to comply with these requirements. 3) The claim that borrowing in Europe would strengthen the Euro and weaken the Dollar makes sense, in a way. Problem is that the Euro is week and the Dollar is strong. The weekness of the Euro can in large parts be attributed to the still dismal economic situation in Germany and their "Reformstau" (reform backlog) especially with regard to their tax-system and labor laws. Until that has been changed the Euro will remain week against the dollar. 4) "The Euro is backed by 15% gold." How bullshitty can you get? No European currency, especially not the Euro is backed by gold. The so called powerhouse currency, the Deutschmark, never ever was backed by gold, but only by industrial output, as is the Dollar by now. Part of the Euro's problems is that in Eastern Europe the Deutschmark is being used as a reserve currency, but German industrial output can not keep up with the demand for the Deutschmark (thus horrendous inflation there, compared to the US). 5) "The Euro has no "baggage" in the form of tons of treasuries, bonds and greenbacks sloshing around the globe." Again, nonsense. All local treasuries and bonds as well as corporate bonds were transferred to Euro denomination and are freely traded. Note that this conversion already has happened. If you consider treasuries and bonds 'baggage', then the Euro has it's fair share. (Actually, European traders complain that these instruments are not as liquid as their dollar-based counterparts). Well, let's stop here (I could go on). As a European I follow these things quite closely, so I recognize bullshit when I see it.>>

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/21/2000 9:50:23 AM
From: echarite	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie Why buy "junior gold's" when the "major gold's" are trading like penny stocks. <g>

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/21/2000 10:49:06 AM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, Very interesting comments on the Euro. I believe that from a technical point of view (I know TA is considered taboo by some in these parts <g>), the Euro is now making a longer-term bottom. Your fundamental points enforce my conviction. My intent is to convert some dollar accounts to Euro accounts this week (below $.90). If I were more experienced with currency options and possibly futures, I'd go there as well. Thanks, Marc

To: Earlie who wrote (83134)	8/21/2000 6:58:52 PM
From: TRINDY	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie--Thanks for the detailed response and thoughts and congratuations on making the "cool posts" list. Many others will benefit from your thinking, in consequence. To get ahead of the markets, it's important to be Earlie. VBG