BEST Aug.21 ,2000 CNC REVIEW and NEWS
Aug. 22, 2000,CNC NEWS and ARTICLES
NEWS and ANALYSIS:
=================
Aug. 22 Wall St. Jour: disclosed new Short Interest Ratio:
Wall St. Jour. 8-22-00: CONSECO SHORT INTEREST RATIO:
interactive.wsj.com
interactive.wsj.com;
Company 8/15/2000 7/14/2000 % Chg Avg DailyVolume
CONSECO, INC. 65,769,663 63,975,097 2.8 4,610,868
Short Interest has increased ONLY Slightly.
This is VERY BULLISH because:
The fact that it has NOT gone up more means SHORTS are UNCERTAIN
Now that CNC will go to pot ( =zero).
The fact that it has NOT gone down means that a LOT of shorts
Are STILL UNDER WATER, so that the potential for
A GIANT SHORT SQUEEZE is still there.
That potential was thoroughly examined yesterday by
TheStreetCom.
8-21-00: StreeetCom.com:
What Happens When Short-Selling Goes Bad
thestreet.com
Message 14247932
This article I believe was responsible in part for a little
Short covering we had yesterday at ~ 1415.
I think, for some unknown reason, I am now beginning to
like The StreetCom.
=====================================================
We are still under the reassurances of Gary Wendt
When he came out battling the shorts and said
NOT TO WORRY ! ! ! !
about CNC meeting their obligations.
siliconinvestor.com
================================================
We also know that Mr. Wendt paid the taxes on the $45 mill
he was paid to come to CNC.
A call to CNC investors office told us that :
" Mr. Wendt paid the taxes on the bonus.
His bonus was not grossed up.
He received $45 million before taxes.
messages.yahoo.com
======================================================
His Incentive to stay is great:
messages.yahoo.com
If stock price is $30.01 on 6/30/02,
then Wendt gets:
1. $50,000,000 in salary
2. Can exercise 10,000,000 options @~$6=$240,000,000.
3. Can cash his 3,200,000 share bonus for staying 2 years=$96,000,000.
Total $386,000,000 if stock is at $30.01.
Total = $0 if bankrupt.
Makes the $40,000,000 look like peanuts.
Peanuts that I'm glad to pay ".
by: paulthebigfinn @YHOO CNC Thread.
Details of Pay package are in Form 8-K ( see Edgar ):
messages.yahoo.com
====================================================
End of News and Analysis for Aug. 22, 2000
TA
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PREVIOUSLY POSTED ARTICLES, NEWS AND REFERENCES:
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CNC FUNDAMENTAL DATA
===========================
CNC Balance Sheet
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conseco.com
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CNC Restructuring Program.com
----------------------------------------
quicken.com
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.
Earnings Estimates
-----------------------------
Message 14250661
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CNC CHART & Technical Analysis
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CHART
stockcharts.com[L,A]DCCLYYMY[DC][PB10!B20!B30!B50!F][VC60][IUH14,3!LI14,3!LC20!LK14!LA12,26,9]
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SI CHART
siliconinvestor.com
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MONEY FLOW Stats by Softechie
Aug. 19, 2000 [ since 1/3/2000 (in 1/16 range)].
Message 14241126
Aug 8, 3000 :
Message 14184790
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That story is best illustrated by today¡¦s featured post by paulthebigfinn at YHOO:
Management¡¦s statement today is significant for the things it didn¡¦t say. It went
.
.
messages.yahoo.com
dailynews.yahoo.com
CARMEL, Ind.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 17, 2000--Conseco, Inc. (NYSE:CNC - news) today issued the following statement: ``We believe that short sellers and other persons have been disseminating misleading information about Conseco's upcoming debt maturation. We refer investors to pages 7 and 46 of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2000, (filed last Monday) in which we indicated that:
Conseco is currently in discussions with its bank lenders with respect to„h extension of its debt maturities. Although no agreement has been reached, management is optimistic that appropriate extensions can be negotiated.
„h Conseco has embarked on several courses of action with respect to its Conseco Finance Corp. subsidiary (including asset dispositions and restructuring of ongoing businesses), as well as an asset disposition program with respect to certain non-strategic assets at the parent company level. These initiatives are designed to allow Conseco to reduce parent company debt over time. Conseco believes that the sale of non-strategic assets and the actions contemplated at Conseco Finance will generate cash proceeds of approximately $2.0 billion over the next 12 to 15 months.
``Please refer to the 10-Q for additional information.''
.
.
Management thinks shorts are ¡§disseminating misleading information¡K¡¨ and quoted the previous public record for support. Why wasn¡¦t any new information given? I can think of three answers:
1. They are in negotiations for the roll over, but don¡¦t have it finalized yet.
2. They are selling something big and don¡¦t have Lehman¡¦s permission to use the funds yet.
3. They are trying to sell the whole company¡K
I can¡¦t think of any bad reason they wouldn¡¦t say more. If the shorts were telling the truth, then why issue a press release? I can only get management is in deep sh*t with the SEC. No, IMHO this is the start of something big.
By: paulthebigfinn
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MAJOR RECENT ARTICLES ON CNC
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Aug. 17,2000: Business Wire: Wendt Battles Shorts
Message 14227830
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Aug.15,2000: 1) Lehman Is Latest Hurdle For Conseco's Recovery
Message 14214595
Aug.15,2000: Conseco Still Negotiating Debt Maturity With Lenders
Message 14214598
.
.
.Aug. 14,2000: FITCH TO UPGRADE COMSECO?? Because it is
overcollateralized?
Message 14212528
.
Aug 9 (Reuters) - Conseco Finance, fixed final terms for its 2000-4 series $1.2 billion
nine-tranche asset-backed bond launched on August 4.
Rating Aaa/AAA/AAA
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
Aug. 9,: A consortium of eight insurance companies has completed a $40.5 million investment in
affordable-housing projects across the state, the first test of an effort to get insurers
to voluntarily invest in community development.
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
Aug. 4, 2000: Conseco prices senior classes of $1.2 bln ABS deal favorably
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
Aug. 4, 2000:Conseco Capital Management Names New Co-Portfolio Managers
for Conseco High Yield Fund
Conseco Promotes From Within After High-Yield Exodus
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
.
7/27/00 BUSINESS WIRE:
CONSECO Announces Restructuring Program ,Parts I, II, III & IV , from RB
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
quicken.com
.
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DOW JONES NEWSWIRE 7/27/00:COMPLETE EPS REPORT
1: dowjones.work.com
2: dowjones.work.com
3: dowjones.work.com
7/24/00 BLOOMBERG: WENDT GETS RID OF LEOPARD CHAIR AND .......PROTECTS SHAREHOLDER EQUITY:
quote.bloomberg.com
.
. 7/19/2000 WENDT HIRES Ex-GE CRISIS TEAM
biz.yahoo.com
.
7/12/2000 20 MILLION PAID TO HIRE WENDT
Wendt gets 45 mill less than if he had stayed at the Golf Course and got paidby GE to non - compete and do nothing. GE gets 10 mill CNC shares,
will make another killing.
.
messages.yahoo.com
.
8/21/00:CONSECO INVESTOR RELATIONS SAYS:
Mr. Wendt paid the taxes on the bonus. His bonus was not grossed up. He received $45 million before taxes.
messages.yahoo.com
6/30/2000 WENDT BACK FROM HONEYMOON messages.yahoo.com
..
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VARIOUS CNC INVESTORS
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.
GABELLI FUND UP 23% has 9% of position in CNC:
messages.yahoo.com
PROFIT VALUE FUND: 4 star Morningstar rating.
In last 3 months has added new position in Conseco,
to make in 8th largest position;
position similar in size to its holding in Berkshire.
messages.yahoo.com
.
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BROKERS and ANALYSTS' OPINION
.
.
8/15/00 Bloomberg: Novell, Conseco Are Among the True Stock Bargains:J.Dorfman
cnetinvestor.com
Message 14220318
8/10/2000Gary Smith from REALMONEY.COM at The StreetCom
puts a buy on CNC with a stop at 7.
Anyway, here are a few charts to look at as you sip your morning Cafe Yukon:
thestreet.com
ragingbull.altavista.com
thestreet.com
8/5/00 S & P raises Outlook to highest, 5 ( on scale 1 to 5 )
messages.yahoo.com
7/30/00 STANDARD AND POOR UPGRADES CNC TO 4 STARS FROM 3 STARS
Message 14133330
Maintains: Accumulate: messages.yahoo.com
7/31/00 Merrill Lynch messages.yahoo.com
.7/26/00 LEHMAN MAINTAINS OUTPERORM II ON CNC Message 14109720
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OVERVIEW of CONSECO INSURANCE RATINGS
.
conseco.com
.
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RATING AGENCIES , MOODY¡¦S, S & P etc
.
.
.
FITCH
.
.
Aug. 14,2000: FITCH TO UPGRADE COMSECO?? Because it is
overcollateralized?
Message 14212528
Aug. 11. 2000:Conseco 2000-4 $1.2B Manufactured Hsg Contract P-T Rtd By Fitch
Message 14200638
biz.yahoo.com
Aug. 11, 2000: Fitch Downgrades Conseco Rtgs
biz.yahoo.com
Message 14200576
.
.
S & P
.===============
.
www2.marketwatch.com
ragingbull.altavista.com
S&P cuts Conseco Fin status
Aug. 8, 2000--3:18 pm - By Chris Kraeuter
Conseco Finance's credit rating status was revised to "negative" from "developing" by Standard & Poor's. According to a S&P statement, S&P "believes Conseco Finance's creditworthiness is severely limited by a lack of funding flexibility and aggressive leverage." Also, S&P cited its belief that the finance unit will not be sold to a "higher-rated" entity in the foreseeable future. Conseco Finance's ratings were placed on "developing" on March 31. Conseco's (CNC: news, msgs) ratings status was placed on "negative" on April 7. Currently, Conseco shares are down 1/16 to 7 7/8 on volume of 2.8 million shares.
ragingbull.altavista.com
Comment from RB poster on above S & P reports:
messages.yahoo.com
8/9/00 1:58:00 PM : Business WireS&P Places Various Green Tree Cert Rtgs on Watch Neg
The revision in the CreditWatch status reflects the increasing likelihood that
Conseco Finance will not be sold to a higher-rated entity in the foreseeable future.
ragingbull.altavista.com
Comment from RB poster on above S & P reports:
.
.
MOODY'S
=======================
quote.bloomberg.com
. " While Moody's said it expects the company and its bank lenders to reach a satisfactory agreement,
it said the details of such an agreement and the effects on Conseco's operations remain uncertain.
moodys.com
New York, June 30, 2000 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the credit ratings of
Conseco, Inc. and its affiliates (senior debt rating to Ba3 from Ba1).
moodys.com
New York, April 20, 2000 -- Moody's Investors Service lowered the senior
unsecured debt ratings of Conseco, Inc. and Conseco Finance to Ba1 from Baa3.
.
MORNINGSTAR/FINANCIAL
============================
messages.yahoo.com
Morningstar grades CNC a B-, for financial health, just slightly below average
for insurance industry and average for universe of stocks.
.
.
DALBAR Insurance Rating Web site
================================
Part 1
messages.yahoo.com
Part 2
messages.yahoo.com
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VARIOUS OTHER ISSUES IN CNC:
.
.
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ISSUE OF PRODUCING A GIANT SHORT SQUEEZE:
================================================
First, to effect a short squeeze in CNC and see a giant squirt
of cash upwards in your CNC stock:
b) ask your broker to put the stock out of Street name, or
b) ask your broker to put a sell price ¡§ good till cancelled
at let's say $40 or $50. That will remove it from the short pool.
c) or simply ask him to restrict it, ie you don't want to have it
loaned out for shorting.
.
.
8-21-00: StreeetCom.com:
What Happens When Short-Selling Goes Bad
thestreet.com
Message 14247932
Aug: 11, 2000:REUTERS: "Liquidator" Jacobs bets on insurer's turnaround
biz.yahoo.com
Message 14172703
CNC in WORTH Magazine via Maverick Capital's Hedge Fund Manager - Lee Ainslie.
Ainslie is a noted short seller who has averaged 24.8% after fees with $5B under management.
He has covered his CNC position: I am not going to go
Against somebody of Wendt’s reputation
.
8-1-00 Star Tribune: Neal St. Anthony/On Business:
Jacobs roars, short sellers yawn
startribune.com
.
7/31/00 J.J. CRAMER FROM TheStreetCom editorializes: A great Idea !!!
ragingbull.altavista.com
7/27/00 IRWIN JACOBS WANTS TO PRODUCE A SHORT SQUEEZE.
.
He puts this Ad in WallStJ. then other papers
messages.yahoo.com
streetmonkey.com
.
IRWIN JACOBS PICTURE : interactive.wsj.com
.
Angling for Tie-Ins, Irwin Jacobs Took Up Big-Time Bass Fishing
interactive.wsj.com
Message 14204449
.
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CURRENT SHORT INTEREST
============================
SHORT INTEREST
8-22-00 Wall Street Journal
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
Short Interest According to this web site:
trading-ideas.com
Shorting Rules
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
BOOKS ON SHORTING
========================
(We encourage would be shorts to read these
and go ahead short some more and make
Mr.Wendt¡¦s Day when the big squeezarooo comes along).
capatcolumbia.com
.
BAD SHORTING ADVICE
.
Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments
in SI Thread, by Mr. P$nk Esq.
Message 14187856
.
MISCELLANEOUS SHORTING
===============================
CNC Stock Analysis of the day by paulthebigfinn at YAHOO board
messages.yahoo.com
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7/22/2000 ISSUE OF CNC BANKRUPTCY
AND of DILUTION of SHAREHOLDER EQUITY
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.
.
Part I messages.yahoo.com.
Part II messages.yahoo.com.
messages.yahoo.com.
.
.
7/28/00 :ISSUE of FABER CNBC REPORT & CONTROVERSY
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.
( ie that Wendt is going to dilute shareholder equity ?).
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
7/29/00 reply by ta to FABER Report: CNBC FABER is either LYING or MISINFORMED
.
messages.yahoo.com
.
7/24/00 Cnet : ''We're not going to be diluting shareholder value at ridiculously low prices,'' Wendt said.
cnetinvestor.com
.
messages.yahoo.com
.
7/31/00 FABER CORRECTS HIMSELF:
" CNC WILL N O T ISSUE ANY N E W EQUITY ".
.
boards.cnbc.com
Thank you Mr. FABER.
.
**********************************************
ISSUE OF MR.T.LEE'S PREFERRED STOCK
=========================================
Aug.16:RBull: by Normal_Deviate
ragingbull.altavista.com
Aug.16:RBull: by NJ-Gator:
ragingbull.altavista.com
messages.yahoo.com
messages.yahoo.com
.
ISSUE of VALUE of PREFERRED STOCK
======================================
messages.yahoo.com
.
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LAWSUITS, INTERNET AND CNC
.
.
8/14/00 CNC hires David Herzog as V.P. and General Counsel
Message 14211926
.
From Law firm Baker and Daniels
a very large Indianapolis firm:
bakerdaniels.com
.
.
REVIEW OF RECENT INTERNET LAWSUITS:
--------------------------------------------------
Message 14157877
Friday August 4, H-Quotient, Inc., Files Suit Against Alleged Stock Manipulators Message 14173025
The most recent Lawsuit won by Biometrix
Message 14158321
And just before that New subpoenas on the way
biz.yahoo.com
.
.
NEGATIVE ARTICLES ON CNC
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8/17/00 The StreetCom: Good News with a ¡§ BAD Spin ¡§,
which StreetCom specializes in:
Message 14230638
.
7/27/00 TheStreetCom: Herb's Hotline: Oversight by Conseco?
thestreet.com
7/10/00 TheStreetCom: Conseco Sets Rich Pay Package for New CEO, By Peter Eavis
Message 14023449
7/11/00 Herb's Hotline: Will These Conseco Capers Never Cease?
By Herb Greenberg
thestreet.com
&/14/00 Bloomberg :Conseco Outdoes Itself in Piling Gifts on Wendt:
by Graef Crystal
ragingbull.altavista.com
7/31/00 Warburg initiates coverage with hold;
messages.yahoo.com
7/31/00WSJ Colin Devine from Smith Barney is worried about CNC
messages.yahoo.com
messages.yahoo.com
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MISCELLANEOUS
.
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MISCELLANEWS CNC NEWS
August 11, 2000: Dow Jones News: Conseco Preferred gains in NYSE
Message 14204249
August 11, 2000: Dow Jones News:
CNC FLEXIBLE PORTFOLIO MUTUAL FUNDS TOP PERFORMANCE
Message 14204221
.
.
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WHY I INVEST IN CONSECO
ragingbull.altavista.com
.
.
***********************************************
.WHAT IS CNC REALLY WORTH?
View from a competitor Mr.Nauert, CEO of CERES:
Message 14173062
A CNC competitor!! ,Mr.Nauert, CEO of Ceres says that
starnews.com
If sold to the right buyers, Nauert said, Conseco's insurance operations could bring as much as $7 billion. That's the equivalent of $21 a share -- nearly three times Conseco's current stock price.
And this is from a competitor!!!!
.
WHO IS GARY WENDT
**********************************************.
Aug. 7, 2000 :BUSINESS WEEK
ragingbull.altavista.com
My comments on Business Week Article: Music¡KMusic¡KMusic..
Message 14127197
1997 FORBES/GECAPITAL: " BLOWING BUBBLES "
forbes.com
July 5, 2000: REVIEW OF GARY WELCH LIFE AND ARTICLES
Message 13993832
July 10, 2000: W S J : GE Capital¡¦s Wendt: " A BRUTAL NEGOTIATOR "
Message 14023303
WENDT'S BUSINESS CARD
********************************
I am responsible for 38% of GE's net income:
GE¡¦s profit has come increasingly from Financial Services
That¡¦s GECapital, the company I run, at GE:
businessweek.com
And here how I compare with the giants:
quicken.com
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TA
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APPENDIX DEDICATED TO MISCELLANEOUS IN SHORTING:
======================================================
An introductory song about short covering:
Come on baby, we got a lot of short-coverin' goin' on !!
By Jerry Lee Lewis
amazon.com
It HURTS to be a SHORT
amazon.com
( aka #2 It Hurts to Be in Love By Gene Pitney )
amazon.com
============================================================
Shorts felt REALLY BAD today.
How bad does it feel? Check this
amazon.com
#5: Like a Rolling Stone
amazon.com
==========================================================
Shorts thought of going the Hemlock way.We suggested they do it properly
And go here:
Here's the proper way to use Hemlock:
First become informed
hemlock.org
Then
"Think Happy Thoughts"
as
by Jack Handey...
hemlock.org
Then do it.
COVER YOUR BUTT!!!COLD TURKEY is always best:
hemlock.org |
