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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (72075)	8/31/2000 10:33:59 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

From what I have been reading your friend is right. The refineries also take the changeover as an opportunity to do maintenance on the refineries, which is probably where the bulk of the utilization reduction comes from. Given how hard the refineries have been running this summer I expect planned outages to be longer (or at least actual outages will be longer). Those things ain't gittin' any younger! I have posted on several occasions about the 400K+ bbl/day refinery in Texas going down for two weeks in October. That will have a big negative impact on product supplies, which is where the real problem is. All the energy futures up this morning.

To: chowder who wrote (72075)	8/31/2000 11:27:09 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Speaking of oil? GRL IR just email this to a friend of mine. "We are just finishing up the drilling, logging and evaluation of this 10,000 ft. test. Results of the well should be announced next week." This is the first of several "high impact" offshore Indonesia exploratory wells for GRL. And what interested my was the disclosure several weeks ago that they carried the whole tab themselves, NO partners were let in on this one. For a relatively conservative mid-cap with a 40 yr history in that region this tells me mgt thinks they are sitting on a monster discovery. If they are right am expecting partners will only come in to develop the field on terms far more favorable to GRL than if they'd come on board to drill this 1st well. Anyway we'll know in the next week or 2. Here is todays stock action: siliconinvestor.com Gentleman place your bets<g>. Isopatch

To: chowder who wrote (72075)	9/1/2000 12:50:18 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 95453

Dabum - Food for thought. Thoughts for the day: Six of one; half a dozen of another. A Rose by any other name, would still smell as sweet. Ok the latest DOE charts are out so now would be a good to look at your question. Crude and aggregate stocks: eia.doe.gov Gasoline stocks: eia.doe.gov The scariest chart of all - Distillates: eia.doe.gov Salient points: 1. Note the extreme draws that occurred just to bring gasoline stocks into the middle of the range. 2. Said draws were occurring during a period when most of OPEC and NOPEC were pumping at full capacity. 3. Distillate stocks in the NE have a very small build, and compared to last year have only reached TROUGH LEVELS. Number 3 is an extraordinary fact don't you think? OK, so it's too late now to get a build sufficient to power the nation's heating needs. It's over, finis, sayonara, arriva derci baby! There are only three things that can bail this situation out. 1. MASSIVE imports. 2. Super human refining rates. 3. Deus ex machina - God comes out of the sky and makes winter summer. Ie, demand plummets. I simply don't know how to deal with number 3 on any kind of statistical basis. We do know, however, that the conditions that resulted in the warmest winter on record are no longer present. That huge El Nino/La Nina pattern has worked it's way through the system, and is now absent. Also the solar cycle has peaked. We may be witnessing a beginning of a pattern of a return to more normal seasonal temps. Could this years cooler summer be an early indication of same? I don't know for sure, but it is a reasonable assumption. Number two is probably out of the question. The refinery run rates of the summer have taken their toll on the nation's already barely adequate refining capacity. All indications are that the September maintenance season should be deep and long. Number one seems to be the only way out of alleviating the situation now. OK, so if dumb ole Bullsky can figure this out sitting at his computer, I would think so could OPEC. ( a dangerous conclusion I know). Therefore, as JQP has suggested, Asia may see the lions share of any new OPEC production, not us, as they seem to have some spare capacity. But this is a logistical nightmare, and will probably result in some very wacky API and DOE numbers, replete with revisions galore. In conclusion: Does it really matter if crude builds 20 million barrels if gasoline and heating oil plunge through lower operating levels? The aggregate stocks are topping out now. The previous OPEC production hikes did NOTHING, I repeat, NOTHING to alleviate the depressed levels of of aggregate stocks. The US is still firmly on Matt Simmon's treadmill. I don't expect to see crude prices plunge into the low 20's - UNLESS - Crude stocks build WITH HO/distillates, and gasoline. IMO the key numbers to watch are the aggregate stock levels. Taking crude levels in isolation is and has been a mistake during the recent "product crises". Having said that, we must remember that everything must work perfectly now down the supply chain. Any, and I mean ANY major disruptions could be catastrophic. A rose, is a rose, is a rose.