To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (109831 ) 9/13/2000 1:02:37 PM From: bigja Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894 Don't know if the this has been posted.... SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY UPDATE September 13, 2000 SEMICONDUCTORS Richard L. Whittington Research Brief rwhittington@bofasecurities.com DJIA: 11183 S&P 500: 1476 Work in Progress We believe the tables have turned between AMD (AMD, $28.69, Strong Buy) and Intel (INTC, $62.63, Strong Buy){1} in microprocessor manufacturing execution. Versus a conventional wisdom of reliability, efficiency and performance leadership, Intel watchers have been treated to one miscue after another over the past year, particularly the last six months - chipset changes, motherboard/microprocessor and slow ramp of fast PIIIs. AMD, on the other hand, has been rock solid, but at 15% of overall x86 units, relatively unnoticed. In spite of forecasts to sharply increase supply of microprocessors this second half, reports continue that Intel is falling short of the mark not just for Q3 but for soon-arriving Q4 as well. Whether owing to "slower demand" or "low manufacturing yields", stories abound throughout Silicon Valley that Intel is coming up short as Q3's conclusion draws near. $7-ish 64Mb DRAM spot prices are definitely down and have clearly lost sight of $8-plus contract prices which suppliers insist have not changed but which OEMs are clearly trying to jawbone down. Reports of insufficient x86 processor deliveries from Intel even to tier one OEMs continue, and second tier/white box makers are clearly not seeing the allocations they'd anticipated. Our explanation for all this unexpected noise is low Intel production yields on PIIIs, speculated to have gone to a different stepping several months ago trying to improve speed and lower power consumption. With the recent 1.13Ghz PIII recall fresh on their minds, they've slowed the production process to ensure no further mistakes, thus sharply reducing the upside flow for this seasonally critical period. Because PCs still dictate the fortunes of 30% of the chip industry, these concerns weigh heavily on investor minds. As well they should. This is truly a work in progress.