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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (1756)	9/16/2000 10:57:02 AM
From: Jill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Lurq.... Who is talking about a hard landing recently? I believe we figure we've got a soft landing as the economy still looks strong, and we know there won't be more interest rate hikes this year. Isn't it traditional to use earnings warnings right now--its true we could have a dip--and then as of mid late Oct, start to rally into next year? Perhaps one could interpret the Aug rally as proof positive that most Americans are still optimistic--or RR's steelworkers, all into stocks, and all saying they'd buy the dips...our bear market was created in part by a way overbought NAZ and the best year ever, so massive tax bills and thus selling...too many people were on margin...but as scary as it was, the basic economy is still healthy and people are still optimistic But hey, it is probably wise to be cautious.

To: lurqer who wrote (1756)	9/16/2000 7:08:25 PM
From: Judith Williams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Evening all. Nip of fall in the air in Boston. to lurquer who wrote: <<one scenario....>> terrific post. you paint a convincing picture. many thanks. now if the angels would just give a hint--maybe even a little one--about which scenario will play out.... judith

To: lurqer who wrote (1756)	9/16/2000 11:00:06 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Lurqer, quite an interesting "possible" scenario. But as you say, you should always have "few possible" scenarios. Here is another. We are in an election year, and the governing party has a lot of 'freedom" in controlling liquidity. They can win only if going into elections, the electorate "feels good". As we approach critical support levels in the averages (take your pick, 3750, 3550 on the Naz, and 10750 or 10300, the old diamonds boundaries on the Dow), the plunge pryection troops get into action (Summers buys some $20 B of treasuries in the open market etc.). The nifty 100 rally again, into elections (thus the next five weeks or more are actually not as bad), then we get an late November early December relapse and back into you Santa Klaus rally. The real fear stage, does not start until mid January and accelerate into a crescendo into February. The new administrition (whichever it is, and assuming it has smart "money managers"), decides to take the bitter pill of a real bear market as early in their administration as possible, so that the next election is not run on "the economy, stupid..." theme again, and 2002 is a good year rather than 2001. Just another scenario out of many (VBG). Zeev