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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RR who wrote (2834)	9/21/2000 9:58:42 PM
From: uel_Dave	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

Hi Rick; Adam on the INTC thread did the square rooting for you on the warning from Intel; Edit from an another Adam post : So, factoring in the 63.5% prior gross margin percentage, instead of 63%, give a 1.8 cents/share shortfall, instead of 1.4 cents/share noted below Message 14430658 _____________________ To: Tony Viola who wrote (110605) From: L. Adam Latham Thursday, Sep 21, 2000 8:38 PM ET Reply # of 110673 Tony: Re: Just thinking, why didn't Intel also warn about missing earnings? Still up in the air? Here's my analysis - but it's strictly based on available data, and I have no access to Intel's financial data. CNNfn reported that old estimates were for a 6-8% increase in Q3 from the Q2 revenues of $8.3B. Today, Intel says (1) revenues should increase 3-5% over Q2; (2) gross margin should be about 62%, down from prior guidance of 63%; and (3) interest should be about $100M higher than previous guidance. From (1) above, old revenue estimate for Q3, based on an average of 7% increase, would give $8.881B, while newly revised estimates, using an average of 4% increase, would give $8.632B. From (2) above, gross profit before warning, using 63% gross margin percentage, would give 8.881x.63=$5.595B, while new guidance, using 62%, gives a gross profit of $5.3518B, or a decrease of $243M. From (3) above, this decrease in gross profit will be offset by a $100M increase in interest income, so the resulting decrease in earnings, before taxes, would be $143M. The tax rate is estimated at 31.8%, so the decrease in after-tax profit would be 143x.682 = $97.5M. With 7B shares outstanding, this would result in a EPS decrease of 97.5M/7B = 1.4 cents per share. So unless I'm doing my math wrong, Intel appears to be getting punished by 33% from it's recent highs for a 1.4 cents/share shortfall in Q3. Again, my analysis and opinions only. Adam

To: RR who wrote (2834)	9/21/2000 10:01:54 PM
From: altair19	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

RR....the shopping basket is rolling...hmmm..a little EMC, maybe some Seibel...will sniff around for some others to ride up through December. Good evening Altair19