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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (5459)	9/22/2000 6:03:02 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

my understanding is that it won't make a difference because it is crude. The bottleneck is in the refineries which are already operating at near capacity. The release will spank speculators in the crude market though.

To: Bosco who wrote (5459)	9/22/2000 6:12:38 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30051

I think it is quite significant, I do not have the numbers with me, but the result (when compared to 800,000 barrel per day increase OPEC is supposed to give us) will be for the next 30 days an increase in supply of 1.8 MM barrels/per day (1 MM from the reserve and .8 MM from OPEC), and since I doubt that of the 800,000 additional OPEC production more than half was to get to our shore, you have tripling of that amount. Take into account that OPEC daily production is just under 23 MM B/day, and this addition is a good 4% increase in supply. For a commodity trading at the margins, that is quite a lot. Furthermore, the proximity of this oil to the markets, and thus not getting bogged down in transportation bottle necks (apparently the real reason for short supply here), make the impact of that oil much stronger. Earlier this week I posted that I got out of TLM (lucky for me, it is now down $3.5 from my sell and getting close to a reentry decision point, much faster than I expected), in expectation of such a move (which I suggested would happen as part of the "plunge protection effort" last week). Zeev irrevolute.iuma.com