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To: Catcher who wrote (108857)	9/23/2000 8:50:56 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Every time a leaf gets blown from a tree GST thinks the Ice Age is returning. It's an all-or-nothing proposition with GST. If Intel loses product and pricing focus competing with AMD and finds a face-saving excuse, then technology is a sell. It's all monolithic and simple: What's bad for any company is bad for all companies, and only speculative fools think otherwise. If there is any dislocation in some economy or some sector somewhere, then a recession is sure to follow. GST won't tell us anything about his background. Not that it matters any more, but I think there isn't much.

To: Catcher who wrote (108857)	9/23/2000 9:53:34 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

>> but what will it be like if another mega-tech warns in the next 2 weeks?. But Dell, CPQ and HWP all issued re-assurances that their Q3 rev/e are as expected. And all went up while INTC crashed.

To: Catcher who wrote (108857)	9/23/2000 2:16:32 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Catcher: "but what will it be like if another mega-tech warns in the next 2 weeks?" I think you make some good points. INTC has its own problems -- BUT -- it is likely to be the first, and not the last, mega tech warning. Here is the issue: Is there or is there not a broad, significant slowdown taking shape in the global economy? In my view there are many contributing factors -- and I emphasize oil in part because there is a very, very strong statistical correlation to business cycles. The very good years we had are partly do to cheap oil, and now, with oil pinching the economy, oil is contributing to a global slowdown. But it is not the only factor. There is interest rates. There is the circular cause-effect of the slowdown on the stock market -- a removal of the wealth effect. There is Japan, which can't seem to reform itself out of a wet paper bag. There is Europe with their stupid Euro and very inflexble labor markets and laws. Etc., etc. etc. But it all comes back to this -- are we heading into a slowdown so severe that corporate profits are going to be worse than expected at least for the next year????? If the answer is even a strong "maybe", then it will pay to have dry powder (cash), because the market is priced as if growth is not at risk. Take care.