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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mike Buckley who wrote (32473)9/27/2000 11:41:21 PM
From: gdichaz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Mike: The problem of trying to find quantitative proxies for what is key - quality - remains.

The rear view mirror is not too useful for looking ahead.

Quantitative measures are not too useful if the lag is great or even if the metrics are difficult to evaluate - such as revenues for Qualcomm which are useless as such.

Once a long time ago I happened to be in charge of a major exercise to find quantitative measures for quality.

In brief, it failed.

This does not imply hopelessness, but it does suggest caution.

Plain ole stuff such as depth of knowledge, analysis, and thinking proved to be superior as a means of judging quality.

Sad for those who loved math as a "science" and particularly for those who thought there was such a thing as political science, but perhaps there is a place for art and/or fuzziness (sort of).

The great opportunity that the network exercise offers is to try to find real proxies for quality.

I hope that will work.

Best.

Cha2



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (32473)9/28/2000 9:19:58 AM
From: Judith Williams  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54805
 
Mike--

fabulous job

It sure helps everyone to have a terrific model to work from. :)

official name should be "Project Network"
so be it

net margin should be clarified to exclude one-time gains and charges
ditto

cash minus debt
cash assets, short term liquid investments, and all other liquid assets substituted for plain cash. My preference would be to use total debt, not just short term debt, but I leave that up to you.

possible additions
Your comments led me to think it might also be useful in the upfront basic facts to have a flow ratio, as an indication of how well the company manages its cash (and its suppliers/customers)and a formula cited for the cash king margin.

flow ratio: (current assets-cash*)/(current liabilities-s.t. debt**)

*cash again would be cash and equivalents, marketable securities, and short-term investments. Short-term debt would include notes payable and the current portion of long-term debt.

cash king margin: (operating cash flow-capital expenditures)/sales

percentage of convertible debt/total debt

I'll gather the comments all together and then post the revision.

Judith



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (32473)9/28/2000 2:47:03 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
I've seen the term, cash, interpreted so differently so often that I'd like to suggest that it should be clarified to mean the following: cash assets, short-term investments, and all other liquid assets.

Including A/R, I presume?