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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (32525)	9/28/2000 2:48:02 PM
From: Jason W	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike is right, but what, that we like, is not high? Lindy, Perhaps what you are explaining is similar to what happened to the Dow Dividend Theory. It is/was argued that it no longer works since so many started practicing it. Many of the true Gorillas, or companies in hot sectors that are the market leaders all see these high valuations. Many of our Gorillas and Gorilla candidates carry breathtaking valuations that price these companies based upon perfect execution of their business model several years into the future. Any hiccup in execution and the stock is punished severely. That is where this board, the "think tank of think tanks", comes into play. Identifying the best companies before they take their paths skyward is the key to creating long term worth, serious capital appreciation, and reduction of risk. Once you (the investor), gain a comfortable cushion/appreciation in your stocks value, much of the risk is gone, and the creation of wealth begins as others begin to "find" the stocks that we already own. SEBL is a wonderful example of this idea in use. SEBL is exceptionally high right now, and the thread is debating the value currently. But, many investors here are contemplating how large a profit to take, not whether or not they will need to take a loss. SEBL was identified as a winner early, and many people benefitted greatly from the pick. The only genuine "thought" I have regarding all this is that I lean towards lower valuation companies discussed here, such as WIND, SNDK, and CREE. As an example, I sold ORCL way too soon,(before I found this thread), and will no longer consider them. The Gorillas with market caps of $150B or so and up will not turn into the 5 or 10 baggers that I am hoping to invest in. I fully understand the risk associated with buying "shiny pebbles", but to make it past the minds that be here on the G&K thread, combined with my own DD and gut instincts, I choose to follow this path. This is not to say that I don't own some larger caps. I would like to see some discussion, whether here or on another thread that discusses developing and/or tracking a basket of "shiny pebbles" with smaller positions, in hopes of getting one or more 10 or 20 baggers in the process. This idea may not fly with some people here, but for those with larger sums to invest, a stomach for increased risk, and confidence in their "shiny pebble" picks, their may be a place for such investing, parallel to the Gorilla Game. I recall BB, or someone else possibly, looking into Off Road Capital and other venture type funds. If those types of opportunties are being considered by others on this board, than an "aggessive shiny pebble" portfolio may be an option also. As a young investor, I am grateful to have found this thread so early in my investment career. I hope this post wasn't too far off topic, and if it was, sorry. Jason W

To: LindyBill who wrote (32525)	9/28/2000 3:11:28 PM
From: 100cfm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

but what, that we like, is not high? JDSU/SDLI valuation is breathtaking, also Well put Lindy,and not to mention NTAP and GMST. AND what happened to the fact of not selling a Gorilla till an threat from a disruptive technology occurs? I can understand that none of us want to do the Qcom Ferris wheel ride but I kind of like that some of our favorites are making new highs with overall markets so far off theirs.

To: LindyBill who wrote (32525)	9/28/2000 4:00:07 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Mike is right, but what, that we like, is not high? Qualcomm. --Mike Buckley P. S. And Citrix. And Rainforest.

To: LindyBill who wrote (32525)	9/28/2000 6:25:16 PM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

On valuation... well there's 'high' and then theres REALLY high! <g> NT is not that high. SEBL is getting very high - historically (mike is right I just checked their PE and have never seen it this high before). NTAP is through the roof. ITWO is to the universe and beyond <g!>... saying all of that .. We all know NTAP, SEBL, ITWO etc.. will keep growing. On demand... I think your assesment is right on the money (up optical and down voice). Also all of the industry figures show huge tornado like growth. This is vouched for by all the top companies CEO's. Nortel's Roth just guided analysts even HIGHER a few weeks back. And Roth has a reputation for being conservative (NT has blown out earnings last few times). Couple this with Roth's statements that customers demand could go down quite a bit before supply would even come close to demand. Corning, JDSU and NT spending millions (and billions) on growing as fast as humanly possible. High barriers to entry are making this a 2-3 company race in almost every sector. JDSU/SDLI and NT being the undisputed kings of their respected niches. And what do we have on the 'slowing demand' side?? Nothing but one or two analysts that are not widely respected to begin with (read the NT thread to see the calls today's downgrade analyst has made in the past). AND they have no numbers to back them up! Only their opinion gleemed from their reportedly phoning several of Nortel and Cisco's customers! Don't you think Roth and Chambers would be polling their customer base as well? Yes. And I am sure that Roth wouldn't leave himself open to a law suit by telling analysts - just weeks ago - to UPGRADE Nortel's forward projected revenue estimates because they were too low!