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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony Viola who wrote (111835)	9/29/2000 4:11:00 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Tony, re: "What is ridiculous to me is why these companies, all of them, Intel, AMD, Sun, Apple...why don't they do the best job they can at project planning and then add a very comfortable fudge factor. Their customers aren't going to desert them for a couple of months." What makes you think Intel didn't add a comfortable fudge factor? At this point, I'm having a hard time believing anything they say, a harder time believing they can execute their plans. I would try to put down a chronology of their failures over the last year, but it would be too depressing. If you couple their ineptitude with a suspected slowdown in demand, you have to wonder where this stock is going. They have one hell of a business, it's not like the world can walk away from microprocessors, but I'm beginning to think that they are capable of running it into the ground. If Jim McMannis knows that Timna is a dead issue two months before Intel does, what does that tell you!?! John

To: Tony Viola who wrote (111835)	9/29/2000 4:38:41 PM
From: JDN	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Dear Tony and John: John, like you, I was very upset when I heard of the delay of P4. However, my broker read me some info one was a comment from Michael Dell who said its no big deal as that product would be on a 90day wait list anyhow and the other was some analyst (forgot who) who said the P4 would only constitute 4-5%of INTC revenue over the next year anyhow so he didnt see a short delay as a big deal. So, maybe that consoles us somewhat. However, I am more concerned with the BIG PICTURE and the one that seems to CONTINUALLY emerge is that of a big company sloshing around seeming to lose its way. INTC better straighten up and fly right soon before they become a laughing stock. JDN

To: Tony Viola who wrote (111835)	9/29/2000 10:36:03 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 186894

Re: why don't they do the best job they can at project planning and then add a very comfortable fudge factor. Because then you end up in AMD's position with Duron. Duron was a redesign of the Athlon with smaller, moderately rearchitected cache. The die is about 16% smaller than Tbird (as you know) - it's a different chip. It could have had some bugs that could have taken a quarter to work out. So AMD was probably pretty guarded in the schedule it gave to motherboard and chipset producers. I appears that first silicon was perfect and they were in volume production a couple of months early. So nobody had any sockets ready for the chips, and the chips just sat for a quarter. IMHO, unless you're so far ahead of the competition that you can afford to sit on your best products, or in AMD's position of having a negative reputation to live down, beating forecasts is as bad as missing them. Otherwise, it doesn't help to build in a big fudge factor. You just have to make the best estimate you can and try to achieve the goals you've set. With this much competition, Intel can't afford to let the OEM's start designing products only after they've entered volume production. In such a situation, Dell, Compaq, etc. wouldn't begin production planning for P4 until November (or whenever the thing is finally ready), and the final systems wouldn't be for sale until April or later. Regards, Dan