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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: AK2004 who wrote (11037)10/2/2000 11:25:43 AM
From: CirruslvrRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 275872
 
Albert - RE: "Speed Issue Problems Identified: Internal Mask Flaw"

This is EXACT same problem AMD claimed to have at the beginning of last year with the K6-2!

"In its efforts to accelerate its roadmap, we believe Intel did not fully
simulate and test the new mask sets before they went into production, thus
resulting in adequate yields in terms of good die, but slower-than-expected
bin-outs."

Yup, AMD made the number of processors they had expected, but they were mainly running 300-333MHZ instead of 350-400MHz!

If this analyst's estimate that production will be fine come January is accurate, this practically ensures AMD almost no competition in the GHz arena for the rest of the year. I wonder if Intel will even be able to pull of a 1.13GHz re-launch (taking into consideration how bad previous launches have been). No wonder Intel won't further delay Willy until next year - they know they will have nothing to compete with the rest of the year in high-end because PIII bin-splits aren't as good as expected.

This new info reinforces Kash's thought that AMD will be just fine if the 1.2GHz release next week or so is the last one for the year (for desktop processors).

For reference, last year AMD came out with 700MHz at the beginning of October and 750MHz in late November.



To: AK2004 who wrote (11037)10/2/2000 11:28:42 AM
From: porn_start878Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 275872
 
1-GHz products were not expected to contribute
material revenue for 6-9 months


At least they contributed to AMD's and 1GHz+ will be approximately at least a half of AMD CPU revenues in Q4 if not more. I repeat it : Q4 will be the most profitable window for AMD.

Now Wall Street has a decision to take :

#1 They continue to block their ears and shout Intel's supremacy loud, and continue to close their eyes on the fact that journalist no more talk Intel without mentionning AMD which is the first symptoms of the duopoly syndrom.

Consequences : Intel will continue to deceive them Q after Q and they'll blame all the PC market. This will cost them Intel's devaluation AND OEMs and other PC market member's devaluation. That's the most costly situation for everyone.

#2 They finally concede that AMD is now THE other big player in the CPU market and attribute Intel's deceiving performace to AMD's penetration.

consequence : Then they'll have to suffer only Intel's devaluation (probably less than the one in #1 given that mighty Intel probably has some rabbit in such a huge hat). AMD will be revaluated to at least an Intel level PE (33 to 40), reajusted Q after Q given AMD's impressive growth. The OEM and other PC market members's valuation may even rise given that competition always create a better pricing environment.

The most likely is that some will react according to #1 and some others to #2...

Max



To: AK2004 who wrote (11037)10/2/2000 12:58:50 PM
From: Charles RRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 275872
 
<Right now, there is
very little volume for the 1-GHz or higher speeds for either Intel or AMD,>

Gee, I wonder how this came to such a logical conclusion. Talk about being completely out of touch.



To: AK2004 who wrote (11037)10/2/2000 1:00:08 PM
From: Joe NYCRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 275872
 
Albert,

The Timna, Pentium-4, and 1-GHz products were not expected to contribute material revenue for 6-9 months, so we are not changing our model.

If 1 GHz chips are not expected to contribute material revenue for 6-9 months, I think their model needs to be revised. In Q1 and especially Q2, 1 GHz and below chips will have hard time bringing more than $100.

Joe