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To: p40warhawk who wrote (7455)	10/3/2000 5:59:54 PM
From: iowamann, Spam Queen	Respond to of 100058

P40, a good post and I agree with what you say. Probably why I think it is a good post. I especially agree with "the market is looking for an excuse to rally". On the downside, I saw a very credible person on Cavuto last night who said the 1929 word. Back to other discussions we've had. Sometimes it pays to sell at the peaks rather than hold a stock forever. However, I know you have had very good luck with your long term investments, so I guess "if it isn't broken, don't fix it."

To: p40warhawk who wrote (7455)	10/3/2000 6:36:43 PM
From: theniteowl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 100058

p40warhawk Not sure that I agree about 4500 being the norm when I look at a long term chart, JMHO. stockcharts.com

To: p40warhawk who wrote (7455)	10/3/2000 8:08:18 PM
From: manfmnantucket	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

hey p40! THE Norm retired when Cheers ended. But the black art of TA is all about giving a more quantitative sense to these concepts like "norm"... "The market is currently looking for any excuse to rally. That's because of the "law of gravity" as it applies to the stock market." now, now P40. The market didn't exactly see "no rate hike" as an excuse to rally today, did it? When investor sentiment is very optimistic, any negative content is ignored and rallies happen on news that might othertimes be interpreted as negative. And last time I checked, the Law of Gravity read: "What goes up must come down." Not, "What comes down must go up." REPEAL the law of gravity, I say! "The only alternative is another 1929, and who really believes that?" Good point. Nobody believed the 1929 crash would happen before it did, either. But is that really the only other alternative? If this were to be a replica of 1929, we would have had much more downside in the weeks following April 17, instead of going Sideways for the Summer. Historically, what does happen after each speculative bubble episode is that the market enters a boring normalcy for years, with few huge gains or losses, until people forget the pain and seek euphoria again in the market. It happened after the biotech runup too. When everyone is still conditioned from the past few years into expecting a Big Move - "crash to 3000!" or "rocket to 6000" - that which neither camp expects should happen, i.e., boring stability. But isn't that exactly what the Fed would like to see? "My internet holdings have suffered a meltdown. If I could think of a more dramatic term I would use it." How about "pop!"? That speculative bubble has burst, and my guess is it will not re-inflate any time soon. Not to be grouchy. I feel your pain, believe me. And the stupid moves I made were in spite of knowing better. Now a suggestion. If you're looking towards retirement. Look into liquidating holdings you are "hoping" upwards. Use the capital to sell puts and generate some income. This is a little-known investment strategy but one of the most reliable and best in a bull (or sideways) market. After days like today, find things you think you'd like to buy, subtract 5% or so, or figure out the next support level, then sell puts at that level if it looks like a price where you'd love to own the stock. If things bounce back up, you'll still have the $$ from selling the puts to buy the next dip. OR, you may just want to sell puts on every dip. I mean, why actually buy stock when someone else will pay you to buy it from them at a cheaper price than where it is today? JMHO. MfN

To: p40warhawk who wrote (7455)	10/3/2000 8:13:56 PM
From: FLACK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

p40warhawk I enjoyed your post and I hate it when someone says that their portfolio has experienced a “meltdown”. However, I do differ from you on this point - when you said - “It can’t last because the problem is technical and not fundamental, unless you consider psychology to be part of the fundamentals--and I don’t.” Psychology may not be found on a balance page or in the earnings report but I believe that it is the essence of the market and therefore cannot be dismissed. The history of mankind can be said to be a history of speculation. Risk taking has always been a vital part of our lives. With risk and speculation comes the inevitable and unavoidable consequences and evils of emotion. We fear that our decisions will lead to pain or losses and so we are unwilling to take a risk. We fear that our failure to act will lead to even worse consequences, so we act impulsively. We attempt to protect our gains for fear they will be lost. We are motivated by greed and desire to make small investment turn into large profits, so we act on emotions ignoring rational thought. Another point - and here I assume you’re talking about the NASDAQ and the internets. “The market is currently looking for any excuse to rally.” I’ve been tempering my “short” talk on the board, trying to remain at least casually upbeat because I felt people might be getting weary of hearing about short selling this market. But my real take on this is that the NAS is in serious trouble and the nets in particular. These blowhard types (D.W. and if you remember Kim Edwards of IOM) have had their day in the sun. As I stated maybe a year or more ago, these companies that rely on selling stock to generate income will be found out. They will be trashed. The hype machine may still be functioning but we’re now seeing that the institutions have shifted money into real companies - check IBD list of companies making new highs... these are companies that have truly exceptional fundamentals, earn money and will continue to earn money without any pie-in-the-sky, “reorganizing” hoopla. Good companies don’t need to look for “any excuse” to rally. The NAS debacle is freeing up gobs of money to move into untarnished companies with real growth. I say the psychological sentiment that you choose to ignore has shifted. As it did in the past, value matter once again. That having been said, I hope you come out of your meltdown some day soon and prosper.