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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maverick who wrote (12015)	10/7/2000 10:18:26 PM
From: ajbrenner	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 275872

Re:Anyone cares to dissect Q3 earning ? $5.25 per share earnings in 2001(Est). Isn't taht a big jump over previous estimates? I could just be reading it wrong. ajb

To: Maverick who wrote (12015)	10/8/2000 11:37:54 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Maverick: "Anyone cares to dissect Q3 earning ?" Comments: 1. Wholly agree ML tends to be overly conservative...In fact , it'd be interesting to have them put up the similar set of numbers that they were projecting at this time last year when they were at best nonplused by AMD's prospects... 2. In typical conservative/negative ML style, they are projecting 23% revenue growth in Y2001 revenues, a shortfall from what will be, by at least 15% for the following reasons: i) The semiconductor sector growth rate will (contrary to what some would have you believe as an act of faith, because it certainly can't be supported by facts) continue unabatedand at a very healthy and opositive rate. ii) AMD will achieve $2 billion in flash and $5 billion in microprocessor revenues for a total of $7 billion and a revenue increase of 40%. (We can look behind these revenue estimates and see that the underlying assumptions are not only not unreasonablebut may in fact prove to be conservative). iii) AMD eps for Y2000 and Y2001 of (after adjusting ML's for the split)$2.55 and $2.62 respectively, assuming continuing reasonable growth of the semiconductor sector, which I certainly do, is likely significantly understated, but we'll know better on Wednesday...My guess is that Y2000 eps will come in at $3.50 before Comm capital gain and $5.00 in Y2001 owing to rising ASP's and rising microprocessor volumes as Dresden continues its ramp up and demand for AMD microprocessors swells plus continuing profitability from its leading edge flash production... ML, like most mainstream houses, don't want to upset the status quo too severely, by extrapolating on the very real AMD outstanding performance and execution trends witnessed throughout Y2000, rather they seem determined to dampen their AMD enthusiasm in light of the ongoing phantom competition threat evidenced by the likes of the recent 1.4 gig P4 price drop...