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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (12983)	10/11/2000 11:42:23 AM
From: OWN STOCK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Pat knows: They have to spend...some will die... From my post yesterday on SDLI board (sorry but it is appropriate)...I did "freshen" it... Muddy firsthand evidence of Telecom spending: AT&T Broadband (check the name) is digging up the street next to my house, installing fiber in massive orange colored rolls...they now own TCI cable. It rained cats and dogs yesterday in SiVal...muddy out there with all the digging. So the move is to broadband services, and telecom companies without the bandwidth will just plain die. All figured out they needed fiber long haul. Very old news. Need is to get that bandwidth to your house, not just to your desk at your business, and do it with apps you will pay for. It is happening, but it is a massive project, and big projects take time. Some company execs still have not figured it out, so play like they understand, but do not. Those that have will be on the skids financially, spending to install fiber to the home...(OK, block, curb, whatever...)...this will be a key indicator of telecoms that are getting it...low margins for awhile...others will find ways to do it with less debt, but more equity...but money it will take... Bandwidth takes hardware, and a lot of it. Hardware is not free. Component ASPs are dropping a tiny bit not due to lack of sales, but because of it....called the learning curve...aka volume discounts. So revenues and margins of optical component makers will increase for sure....you can bank on it. Does this mean the optical component stocks will rise? Who can say, but they should...if oil does not kill the market as a whole... So the message is there is a sea change coming in Telecom....some of the old players will not survive it...that will make the market nervous as hexx...watching dinosaurs die makes some small furry mammals run for cover...others will rush in and get a bite of fresh meat! Message to all but Pat (we know where she stands :-)): Where are you in the food chain? Dino or Mammal? Long JDSU/SDL! -Own

To: pat mudge who wrote (12983)	10/11/2000 12:55:32 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Pat, Saw Bob O'brien on CNBC link weakness at Lucent to JDSU. I can't believe some of the sources these people have. It did not occur to him to mention that Lu's strongest business was Microelectronics unit (semi and fibre optic components). When a company as bad as Lucent has this bright spot, you can get the independent component makers like JDSU/SDLI are doing really well. I think they should have read a few of the research reports this morning before trying to make the connection. I bet Ciena and others are getting a bigger chunk from JDSU. It could also mean those players with smaller inhouse component capabilities (like CIEN) could put a bigger demand on JDSU. I am still taking JDSU's need to increase authorized shares from 3 billion to 6 billion as a good sign. They don't need the shares for the SDLI deal. All evidence points to a booming business and a possibility that the company will blowout earnings. The ETEK/JDSU supply agreement prior the merger might also be kicking in now---ie. the post merger synergies.