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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bambs who wrote (40760)	10/13/2000 1:44:10 PM
From: Jim Lamb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77399

CSCO NORTEL LUCENT by The Motley Fool here fool.com

To: bambs who wrote (40760)	10/13/2000 1:59:11 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77399

Re: I think until big cap tech bottoms...... There is great risk in this market right now in my opinion Hi Bambs, Where do you see "big cap tech" bottoming? IMO, there won't be one single tech company worth over $100 Billion when she bottoms. Maybe not even over $50 billion. There's just not one out there that deserves a valuation that high, can you name one? I pulled out of the market this morning. IMO, this is a dead cat bounce that will last anywhere from today to a month. Then we're gonna bust through the 3000 level with force. It will probably take at least 1-2 years for this sucker to unwind, so there will be many good shorting opps. For now, I just need a break for a while, at least a few weeks I'm done with this rummy game, not even gonna look at it. There's some interesting discussion on the Clown thread comparing the Naz to the Nikkei and it's downfall. Here's some comparisons with the current Naz and Nikkei, based off of Naz 3100: the 83 stocks in the NDX that have a p/e ratio (the other 17 don't have the necessary 'e'), are selling at an average 98 times earnings, in spite of the contraction of e.g. MSFT's p/e to a level not seen in years. this is still HIGHER than the average p/e ratio of the Nikkei at the very top. clearly, what these stocks would be unable to deal with is an economic downturn of some consequence, as they have very little in terms of NAV. their value is derived largely from unquantifiable intellectual property and their customers willingness and ability to pay up for it. an economic downturn would impair the ability part. another aspect often overlooked, is that at the height of the frenzied blow-off earlier this year, most were not just priced for stellar growth, but for accelerating growth, far into the future. this is typical of the new era thinking that develops near market tops: the belief that the business cycle is dead, and that growth rates can be projected forward into infinity. that's usually also the time when the business cycle decides to wake up from its slumber and say hello to all and sundry. In other words, this bubble popping has a lot longer to go. regards, chic