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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (8852)	10/21/2000 12:35:10 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Ian, re 'hyperbole': last two 'cycles' SEMI orders dropped 50+% from peak to bottom, shipments much less because of backlog. geocities.com G.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (8852)	10/21/2000 1:39:39 AM
From: Ross	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

deleted for reformating

To: Ian@SI who wrote (8852)	10/21/2000 11:36:05 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Long term you are right, shortage will improve profitability of the wafer makers (it may be time to get back into WFR? Na, the Balance sheet really stinks..). The problems are the lags, before a company like WFR can go back to their lenders, they'll have to show two good quarters and a good chance of continuation. Then they have to build new capacity (particular problem is 300 mm facilities, I don't know of anyone doing mass production yet, but we have at least 6 300 mm fabs or more coming on line in the next two years). Every new facility needs to be requalified by end users (INTC takes almost six month to qualify a wafers from a new wafer facility, at least that used to be the number few years back). I do not know how are these things factored in the various models for future growth of chips shipments. Maybe it is a non problem, and maybe something new to "worry" about (g). Short term, however, I'll repeat what I said last week, I expect a 50% move from the recent bottom for most semi equip. Some of them already did that (NVLS from $28 to just under $42). After that, well, I am not as sanguine as most others on this thread. Zeev irrevolute.iuma.com