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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (13694)	10/29/2000 11:21:22 AM
From: Rod E	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Pat, I hope this article from the NY Times is more to your liking. It's an interview with Gregory Geiling, an analyst at J. P. Morgan Securities. Suggests bear market for fiber optics may be just a shadow. Following clip from interview supports what you have been saying all along. "Q. Are you worried that spending in this area by big telephone companies is slowing down and will slow further next year?" "A. I don't buy the theory. Traffic growth, particularly Internet traffic growth, is not slowing down. In order for service providers to stay aggressive and stay in business, they need to have the equipment to keep up with the rise in traffic. It's true that the equity valuations of the telecom services stocks are beaten up, like Worldcom and AT&T. But even though their stock prices are very low right now, their cash flows are fine, and they need to spend. And 90 percent of the spending on fiber optics is done by the top 10 telecom service companies. Also, the use of light to transmit information will be the main source of how information will move for at least the next decade, if not longer. So far, we haven't found anything else that can move things faster than the speed of light." nytimes.com

To: pat mudge who wrote (13694)	10/30/2000 5:18:06 PM
From: DukeCrow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

*Even if they had included the time frame, that's not important. What is relevant is the fact it did not fall because of its numbers.* Pat, IMO the time frame is relevant. The quote did not imply that JDSU fell because of its numbers as you wrote. It implies that JDSU fell despite of its better-than-expected profits. What's false about that? *and Wall Street's inability to see 90% y/y growth in optics as positive.* If Wall Street was expecting better than 100% yoy growth, than 90% is not a positive. In actuality, the street was expecting NT to blow away those already high expectations. The fact that they missed makes it all the worse. BTW, why is it that anyone with a view not 100% bullish on optical seems to be regarded as not getting it? Companies like SDLI and JDSU are not going to be the first to realize a slowdown is at hand whenever it does finally come. They will only know it when the slowdown has already started. Companies will slow orders and start working through their stockpile of components (remember Juniper said they were stockpiling) that they had been building up during the times of tight supply. Optical may be seeing great growth, but that is irrelevant. The key is looking at the change in the rate of growth, or its acceleration or deceleration. A lot of people are saying that the acceleration may be over. Is deceleration starting? That's the big question. Who has the answer? Ali