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To: Amy J who wrote (115713)11/2/2000 5:34:56 PM
From: Amy J  Respond to of 186894
 
RE: "growing at 56% of total revenue"

Oops, correction, I should have typed:

...growing so that they are now 56% of total revenue growth

Amy J



To: Amy J who wrote (115713)11/2/2000 7:28:54 PM
From: Mary Cluney  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
 
Amy,<<<Once Intel has all the product tools, I believe this will be a marketing battle, and unfortunately, Sun is very good at marketing. Let's keep our fingers crossed.>>>

Is our "Amy a Bull" wavering?

This is not anything we have to worry much about. Sun has been in the server arena from the beginning and Intel has not really entered the high end server market.

The Xeon competes in the low end and has virtually 85% of the under $25k market. When did Xeon come into the market - about two years ago?

Merced and McKinley are designed to compete in the enterprise market. Tony Viola is the resident expert in this area. He has spent virtually his whole adult life in this field and he knows it cold.

IMO, Sun is an interim solution until Merced and McKinley takes off. Sun is currently more robust and there is an army of programmers who are very comfortable with the arcane unix operating system. There are a lot of commands that the original MS DOS operating system must have copied - with a lot of backslash, backslash, make directory, remove directory types of syntax (A lot of Unix programmers will be laughing at my comments - but who cares).

As far as hardware is concerned, this battle is over before it has started. The cost performance ratio is too compelling in IA64 favor.

What we need to watch is Linux development and adoption rate.

Linux is free and it is an open source OS. The philosophy behind this is that anybody can help to debug problems and anybody can contribute code. More programmers will be contributing to Linux development than MSFT or Sun could ever employ to develop their proprietary OS.

Also, even if Linux were not free, people would prefer an open source OS than to use someone's proprietary and secret source code. Imagine all those programmers in Bangalore digging into Linux source even as we speak.

The server market is done. Craig Barrett is (IMO)looking beyond to make every server a client and every client a server and provide the products and services to connect all the servers to all the appliances that some are envisioning.

If I sound a little shrill, it is because these fellas in white coats are trying to put me into....

Regards,

Mary



To: Amy J who wrote (115713)11/2/2000 8:57:49 PM
From: Paul Engel  Respond to of 186894
 
Amy - re: 'This is why I said these numbers do not bode well for Intel: the numbers are just way too close '

Sun had had a huge head start, so Intel has a lot of catching up to do.

That is fine. In a catch up role, Intel grow and at some point grow INTO the Sun "space".

Sun also has a huge advantage at being the software OS provider for its servers - and their Solaris has been around a LONG TIME and is well known and understood - and integrated seamlessly into their hardware.

On the Intel side, think of this - Sun sells Sun servers (along with Sun VARs). However, Intel has Compaq, Dell, HP, IBM, SGI, VALinux, etc., etc. all out there selling Intel-based servers.

Ultimately, that huge "sales force" will change the tide, especially as Intel's hardware improves much faster than Sun's and Linux and Windows 2000 continue to evolve into more robust OS's.

Paul



To: Amy J who wrote (115713)11/3/2000 7:39:00 AM
From: Pigboy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Amy J,

Always love reading your thoughts.

<< I wish there were more reporting on the Sun vs. Intel battle, so I could watch my investment better. >>

Personally, I feel that Intel is okay in fighting off Sun. As Paul has pointed out, Sun is but one loner out there competing with the likes of CPQ, DELL, IBM, HWP, etc...attacking from below. While Sun is perhaps the fastest growing 'big gorilla' company out there currently, they are still a T Rex surrounded by several hungry Triceratops. However, I think Intel needs to get more aggressive at this crucial time in the Next Generation Network (to borrow from Paul Johnson of the 'Gorilla Game'). Intel needs to get riskier and take more chances on acquiring strategically important players. Cisco has the management to do this. Does Intel? I was a CHPS shareholder when Intel grabbed them for almost half their year high. I was lucky enought to have speculated too that they may be acquired by Intel bc of their portable 3D deals. Intel does deals, but usually it's for cheap. But in this new world, cheap is very relative. Will Intel take a Cerent type Cisco risk to move forward in this new world? Because its difficult to change mindsets in this lightning paced new world, I doubt it. It takes a new understanding of trends, and I question whether Intel is quick enough to stay the pace. Current management is bright, but I have started to question their understanding of their own 'inflection points.' Don't get me wrong, I still have my Intel, but I hope they become more proactive on the acquiring front bc they have to imo...

Personally, and it may be way off topic and not make sense to most here, but I think Intel should acquire Qlgc. I own Qlgc. My theory is that Qlgc basically is a semiconductor company right now and its a pure play on the Next Generation storage build-out of the Internet. Two moves happening currently in the PC world are--

SCSI------> Fibre Channel
PCI-------> Infiniband

Intel is a player in both. But as rudedog has argued i believe, as well as many folks bullish on EMC, the periphery (storage) is moving toward the center of future networks and the center (the big IBM, SUNW, HWP, CPQ, etc. boxes) are moving the the periphery. Infiniband is going to be huge...not now, not until late next year at best, but IB players will reap tremendous rewards and this is common sense, imo. Qlgc is partnered with Intel on making Infiniband Switches. Qlgc may even show up on the P4 motherboard as the next IB controller. With Fibre Channel the new storage paradigm (ie. read Brocade's latest financials to see growth), Intel would get a great hedged semiconductor possible 'powerhouse' in grabbing Qlgc for its SCSI, FC, and IB Intellectual Property. Also, because of Qlgc's closeness to Sun, Intel would be even be part of their enemy SUN's growth...okay, sorry to blabber. ;-) Just thinking out loud...

cheers,
pigboy