Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cisco who wrote (426)	11/5/2000 9:38:23 PM
From: chomolungma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

Hi Cisco, Time is drawing short. I too was somewhat surprised by your prediction. If it weren't for the Zogby poll, I would be in your camp. But Zogby has me a bit nervous in predicting a clear cut win for Bush. I was puzzled by your PA prediction going for Gore. Was the Drudge report of Republican internal polling a factor in your allocation to Gore?

To: Cisco who wrote (426)	11/5/2000 9:47:40 PM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6710

MSNBC has moved ME and NV to tossup, MN to Gore. I have moved MN to Gore from Tossup, but kept ME and NV in Bush’s column. I moved DE from Gore to tossup. As before, IL and MI moved to Gore and OH was given to Bush. Current predictions: I currently have: Bush 213 and Gore 146 as "locked" votes with 179 tossup votes. Simplistic leaning model: In the 13 undecided states, I have Gore leading in CA, FL, PA, WA, IA for 120 electoral votes or 266 total. I have Bush leading in TN, WI, MO, AR, and WV for 44 electoral votes or 257 total. I have true 50/50 tossups in OR, DE, NM for 15 electoral votes. I have no clue about these three right now. Using this simplistic approach of giving slight leans to each candidate, Gore would be at 266 electoral votes Bush would be at 257 electoral votes 15 tossup votes in OR, DE, NM These 3 states produce 8 distinct outcomes. In 6 of those 8, Gore wins; in 1 of those 8, Bush wins; and, in 1 of those 8, Bush and Gore create a TIE!! That translates to a .75 probability of winning for Gore, .125 probability of winning for Bush, and .125 probability of a TIE. 2nd Model--Detailed Probabilistic outcomes in 13 Undecided states Of the 179 toss up votes, in 13 states, I analyzed 8,192 possible outcomes, mapping tracking poll data into probabilistic outcomes for each state. I came up with 174 distinct electoral vote distributions ranging from 179 to 0 down to 0 to 179. Of those 174 combinations, probabilistically, Gore "expects" 109 and Bush expects 70 (remember my undecided group contains: CA, FL, PA, WI, TN, WA, MO, IA, OR, AR, NM, WV and DE. Giving Bush a 283 to 255 win, with .61 probability. 95% Confidence Interval: Bush--240 to 349 and Gore--189 to 298 Because the 13 states have different probabilities and not 50/50, the confidence intervals are not symmetric about the mean estimates for Bush and Gore. Notes on Tie Probabilities Of the 174 possible distinct electoral vote combinations in those 13 states, the 28th most likely to occur is one where Gore gets 123 votes and Bush gets 56 votes for a 269 to 269 tie. The tie has a probability of .0180, higher than the typical electoral vote combination but not something to consider seriously. The "Bad Day at Black Rock Doomsday Scenario" is fully described in post: Message 14731201 Probability of Electoral Vote Tie: .0180 Probability of No House Decision for Pres: .5000 Probability of No Senate Decision for VP: .00788 Overall Probability of No Pres/No VP Decision from the current slate of candidates: .00007092 or 1 in 14,100