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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (128)	11/11/2000 6:49:35 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95881

Just a follow-up to this post: Message 14786367 Examples of upgrades and downgrades exist this week. First, lets take an upgrade on CYMI. quote.bloomberg.com <Princeton, New Jersey, Nov. 10 (Bloomberg Data) -- Cymer Inc. (CYMI US) was reiterated ``buy'' by analyst David Wu at ABN Amro. The 12-month target price is $60.00 per share.> Also, on Friday it was reported by Zacks, that Adams Harkness & Hill, Inc upgraded their yearly estimates for CYMI for 12/2000 from 1.93 to 2.00, and for 12/2001 from 2.85 to 2.89. Bank of America Securities, however, has a much "darker outlook" on CMOS and AMAT. The annual estimate, 10/2001, for CMOS was reduced from 3.89 to 2.86(-26 percent). AMAT, quarter 7/2001, reduced from 0.88 to 0.69, and quarter 10/2001, reduced from 0.92 to 0.63. The landscape is constantly changing, and right now, it is not unanimous in terms of direction.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (128)	11/13/2000 7:24:37 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95881

Don - part of the anomaly of Klic's FY2001 estimate number may be the huge discrepancy between various estimates. According to First Call, the mean and median estimate is $1.03 but the range is from $0.05 to $2.57. The standard deviation for the estimate is a huge - 0.70 (compared to an SD of 0.07 for the FY2000 estimate of $1.89). These numbers suggest that there may be two prognostication camps for Klic's business nest year...and perhaps is revealing for the sector as a whole: one group believes we will see a typical protracted slowdown, as is common during the trough of previous cycle downturns, while another sees us in a temporary pause in a protracted upturn. I would guess the average estimate for Klic FY2001 earnings for the former group is ~$0.25-$0.50 while for the latter is $1.75-$2.25. We should begin to get a clearer picture of 2001 over the next couple of weeks. If the cycle downturn group appears to be correct, the stocks will remain dead in the water for 6+ months; if the 'temporary pause' group appears to be more accurate, these stocks are red light specials right now. BTW, S&P provides two ratings for stocks, a 'star' ranking and an 'outlook' measure. On a scale of 1 to 5, Klic has 2 'stars' (an 'avoid' rating). On a similar scale, Klic has a 5 'outlook' rating (highest). Go figure...but completely consistent with the bipolar perspectives outlined above. Looks like a very ugly opening this morning.