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To: bobby is sleepless in seattle who wrote (4864)	11/22/2000 4:16:46 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8925

I missed the 'point' but sure you will fill me in. Short position trades have been pretty spectacular and the setups never more clear. Its just like trading from the long side in an up market - under those conditions, going long is relatively easy, no? Well, when the market is trending down, especially after a climatic parabolic rise, why go long? I don't think anything has really changed in trading, its just the overall direction of the market that has changed/ So why fight it? So we refrain from going long and look for short opportunities. or do nothing

To: bobby is sleepless in seattle who wrote (4864)	11/22/2000 4:26:26 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8925

bobby, here's an example - we've been posting scads of these recently. SEBL, we were doing the analysis on a day that it moved UP very strongly, suspecting that it would stall. That was 11/15. (Incidentally, I'm sure if you check the SEBL thread that day you will find a lot of positive emotion!) intelligentspeculator.com After moving down so strongly, we anticipated the back side bounce. So many stocks are going through this. The prior 'bullish' pattern - the ascending triangle, is supposed to be bullish but its really an indication of indecision itself. Well in a bull market it may resolve more often than not upwards, but not in a down market. That's why you hear people say that TA doesn't work in this market - that's wrong headed to the max. Its a wrong headed train of thought because the key is that measuring the consolidation pattern still works. Its there in black and white. Consolidation means indecision. If a stock or a market is bullish, then when it breaks it will often favour the norm and move higher. But the reverse is true in a down trending stock or market. TA still works because we detect the consolidation zone correctly and then its up to trading rules to take advantage of it. When it broke from the pattern we know that all sorts of players have suddenly been jolted from their senses and lots of confusion and emotion is sure to reign. So we just need to measure that on our charts. And... 11/16 it consolidated the entire day and resulted in an inside bar - an indication of indecision. No one really in control of the stock here, and the very next day the 11/16 lows were broken and that is exactly when a position trader is going to establish a short. Then its a question of trade management (stops, size) and placing some orders...