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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foundation who wrote (4896)	11/22/2000 11:59:59 PM
From: tradeyourstocks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197007

Is 1xEV destined to be the global data panacea? Clearly, NTT is convinced wCDMA can't get it up. And for once - I believe them. It is truly amazing to read the latest opinions from NTT and compare them to those made just 6 months ago. Having read much of this stuff for the last 6 years, I have to wonder if there is some kind of motive for the recent "confessions" out of NTT. There always seems to be one although it's not always obvious. Here's one possible motive: NTT is in the investing mood these days and is certainly looking for a low price. It certainly would make sense for them to downplay 3G in order to drive down the prices of their potential investments. What do you guys think? MicroE

To: foundation who wrote (4896)	11/23/2000 3:56:52 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 197007

<"I don't think the business model will fundamentally change from 2G to 3G. The essence of the cellular phone business will be the same," said Mr Enoki in an interview. DoCoMo, which is testing 3G technology, is finding that it is unsuitable for carrying large video or sound clips, one of the services that could provide new revenue streams for mobile operators. > Your comments are spot on Benjamin. Andrew Viterbi has been saying for ages that voice and data belong in different channels. Namely 1xEV channels and voice channels. What the heck does Keiichi Enoki mean when he says the business model won't change from 2G to 3G? 'Business model' sounds like business jargon to me. Surely the difference between 2G and 3G is that one is for voice [though a few people try to squeeze data into it] and the other is for Internet access. I was doing some market research today and 3G is going to go absolutely nuts. Young people are going totally berserk over cellphones. They are assigning them higher priority than anything. They are working hard to feed their SMS and cellphone habits. Heroin, cocaine, marijuana, cigarettes and booze are endangered species! Cellphone ecstasy is ascendant and is consuming all money within 100 metres of a young person [between 14 and 24]. They like the phones themselves as works of art, status symbols and security blankets. They love the talking and they love the SMS as part of tribal rites. Just wait until they have a digital camera on the phone and they can email their friends still photos or maybe short clips. They will have voice to text. They'll be able to move money. They'll be able to do all the Internet tricks. But the biggie will be sending images. Images take bandwidth. They'll want FAST image transfer. There will be trillions of images flashing around the world, all powered by CDMA. They'll want web access too - that will take any extra money or bandwidth left over from pictures of themselves and their friends. DoCoMo might not be able to achieve it, but HDR = 1xEV can! Pity the service providers who are late to market on that. People will take a photo, click on their address book, click on the name of the addressee and push send. Perhaps with a voice or text message to go along with the image telling the recipient what it is; "She is sooooo last century. But check out her new boyfriend! He is such a spunk." Photos of something will flash around a school cellphone 1xEV network before the poor couple who have just been caught in the act can regain their dignity. Emailed images will reach from Vladisvostok to Vienna in two minutes. They'll spread like a virulent virus if they are hot. 3G spectrum will fill fast. People just love pictures. Taking them and sending them will be very, very easy and very cheap and very fast. Forget the video stuff or MP3 downloads on the fly. People will get their MP3 supply at home and load it into their phone or minidisk. 3G is going to be huge. A veritable tsunami. The 3G spectrum auctions will return huge riches to the service providers and of course QUALCOMM via ASICs, royalties and stuff. NTT seems to have got themselves in a corner. AT&T is up the creek without a paddle. Mqurice Dow 16,000 Feb 2002 [not long to go now...markets better turn soon...]

To: foundation who wrote (4896)	11/23/2000 8:51:17 AM
From: foundation	Respond to of 197007

Parsing NTT's statements... "DoCoMo, which is testing 3G technology, is finding that it is unsuitable for carrying large video or sound clips, one of the services that could provide new revenue streams for mobile operators... Sustained bursts of multimedia data consume large amounts of the radio spectrum and DoCoMo says it will be too costly to download large files, such as pop videos, to handsets." The ramifications of Enoki's statements go well beyond streaming video and music. wCDMA, being spectrally inefficient and dogmatically insistent on mixing voice and data, will be incapable of economically transferring high data bandwidth. If streaming video and music is problematic with only a few users, internet access, rife with images, will be problematic with a few more. NTT is clearly stating that, with wCDMA, mobile wireless access that transcends present 2G perceptions is not possible. Contrast this vision with HDR (1xEV), designed from the ground up with high data transmission precisely in mind. 3G - and HDR (1xEV) - is fundamentally about data. According to NTT's statements, wCDMA has proven itself incapable. How will the world generally, and Europe specifically, respond? Vendors with vested wCDMA interests will: * attempt to redefine 3G * claim that all technologies share wCDMA's limitations European Operators will: * reexamine 3G spectrum purchases. * reexamine their commitment to UMTS wCDMA. * evaluate 1xEV options, while filtering anti-1xEV FUD through the prism of Vendors' past wCDMA distortions. * evaluate 1xEV trials - like Verizon's beginning this Spring. Parent Vodafone will no doubt be interested in results. We have a new ball game...

To: foundation who wrote (4896)	11/23/2000 8:54:56 AM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197007

Ben: You have cited the authors but I did not see where this was written - the publication. Do you have a link or reference? In your judgement will 1xEV-DO which is now approved as a standard have any real impact or must the world wait for the scheduled approval of 1xEV-DV next June and thereafter? Must the HDR data access availability wait for the combination of voice and data which 1xEV-DV represents or is any meaningful substantial use of 1xEV-DO possible alongside 1X itself? Seems like 1xEV is the answer to the "problems" which NTT is discussing. Since you follow all this closely, would very much appreciate your informed view. Best. Chaz